San Francisco at Carolina (49ers (-1))
Cam Newton. Colin Kaepernick. Two young, exciting quarterbacks with very promising careers in front of them, squaring off in a Round 2 playoff showdown. Can it get any better than that?
Well, if you're a fan of defense, the answer is yes.
Sure, the Niners and Panthers feature two of the best dual-threat QBs in the NFL, but where they hang their hat is on the other side of the ball, tormenting opposing offenses with freak athletes at nearly every position in the front seven.
This matchup is going to come down to two superstars who may not even get their hands on the ball. I'm referring, of course, to 49ers middle linebacker Patrick Willis and Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. These two defenders are the keys to their respective castles, and also to a prolonged playoff run.
Last week we saw Willis and the Niners' defense wreak havoc on a Green Bay offense that had just gotten its leader back in Aaron Rodgers and featured a Rookie of the Year candidate at running back in Eddie Lacy. Willis and company stymied the Packer offense all night, getting to Rodgers early and often, forcing him to make quick decisions if he wanted to stay upright. They stuffed Lacy at the line time and time again, delivering punishing blows to the big back that had him rotating on and off the field and never really able to establish a rhythm on the ground.
To be sure, the 49ers have suffered their fair share of setbacks on defense compared to the group that finished in the top 5 a year ago, most notably with the off-the-field struggles of pass-rusher Aldon Smith. They've also had a tough time finding consistency in the secondary, even cutting ties with former coverage wiz Nnamdi Asomugha mid-season.
But the one constant head coach Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers have been able to count on has been Willis, whose played every snap during his seven seasons in a San Francisco uniform. And for most of those seven years, he's been the best middle linebacker in football not named Ray Lewis. His closest comps on Pro-Football-Reference are Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas. This is a future Hall of Famer if I've ever seen one, and he will be prominently featured this afternoon as the Niners once again try and slow down Newton and that Panthers rushing attack.
Now, about those Panthers, and specifically Kuechly, who has exploded onto the scene much like his quarterback in his first two years in the league. He was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year by a landslide. He's been able to stabilize an oft-maligned unit and give head-coach-turned-folk-hero Riverboat Ron Rivera an Urlacher-esque presence in the middle of his defense.
And for all the press Rivera's gotten throughout the latter portion of the season for his aggressive offensive tactics, he's still very much a defensive-minded coach, having come from a background as coordinator of some of the best defenses we've seen in the last 10 years. It's no surprise that his most successful seasons came with the Bears when he had a reliable All-Pro to count on at middle linebacker.
Even though Carolina decided to sever ties with general manager Marty Hurney before this season, he certainly did an admirable job filling in the defense with players who complement Kuechly and get after the quarterback. The only place he largely failed to do so is in the defensive backfield, where the Panthers are questionable at best and remain susceptible to big plays in the passing game.
Simply put, we're going to be treated to quite the showcase of middle linebacker play this afternoon, as Willis and Kuechly will no doubt add to their already impressive resumes as destroyers of opposing ball carriers.
But the biggest differentiator in this contest, as is the case in most playoff matchups, isn't how the superstars play. It's going to come down to their supporting casts, both on offense and defense.
We know the front seven will be stiff, but will the Panthers secondary be able to hold up against Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and an increasingly impressive Niners passing game?
Same goes for San Francisco, as they'll need to slow down Newton and his band of misfits on the outside, one that drove down the field for an improbable game-winning touchdown in the final minute the last time these two squared off?
That contest ended 10-9 in favor of Carolina. It was an old-school, physical battle between the trenches. An instant classic that provided a great story line for Newton and his still ascending career arc.
And this is what scares me. You see, the 49ers really don't need any more motivation to win this game. They've already came so close to a Super Bowl victory a year ago, having had their glory snatched away by the Baltimore Ravens. Now, Harbaugh and company have their home loss to Carolina to point to in addition to all they've been through in his tenure. This 49ers team is out for blood.
The Panthers? Well, they've really never been in this situation with Rivera and Newton at the helm. This is their first playoffs together, and after an up-and-down season that saw them rip off an improbable 11-1 stretch after starting the season 1-3, it's just hard to guess how they'll respond. To add to that uncertainty, pass-catching stalwart Steve Smith will be hobbled by a knee injury that's given him fits in his attempt to recover.
Just like the Pats last night, I'm afraid this 49ers club is a team build for playoff success. They've got everything working for them, everything in their corner. Oh, and they've got a better collection of players up and down the roster. I just don't see this one being particularly close.
It will be fun to see how Newton and Keuchly respond to the spotlight in their first playoff games, but their effectiveness against a seasoned 49ers group remains to be seen. One point doesn't quite seem like enough to protect them against Willis and company.
San Francisco to win and cover (-1).
PLAYOFF PICKS
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 5-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 4-1-1
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 5-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 4-1-1
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