San Francisco at Green Bay (49ers (-3))
The final game of the NFL's Wild Card Weekend will no doubt be a fun one, and not just because of the two traditional NFC powers who are set to square off. Forecasters are predicting the weather at storied Lambeau Field in Green Bay will be well below zero come kickoff. This is what playoff football is all about.
As for the teams, their roads to this Week 18 showdown really couldn't have been more different.
The 49ers are simply rolling heading into the playoffs, having won six straight on their way to a 12-4 record. If not for division foe Seattle, San Francisco wouldn't even be playing this week.
But it's not like the 49ers need the rest. They're as healthy as they've been in months, welcoming back Michael Crabtree and easing him back into his featured role in the passing game over the last few weeks.
Frank Gore had himself yet another 1,000-yard rushing season. Colin Kaepernick is looking more comfortable. Vernon Davis is a freak. The front seven has seen its play pick up in recent weeks. The secondary is solidifying. And that's not even mentioning their biggest asset, head coach John Harbaugh. The amount of winning he's done since taking over the Niners is damn near unprecedented. You just never know what he's going to pull out of his hat. Oh, and he's owned Green Bay.
As for the Packers, they're still pinching themselves after last week's shocking last-minute win over the rival Chicago Bears. As it stands now, they're 8-7-1, the fourth seed in the playoffs, hosting a 12-4 team that only a year ago was competing for a Super Bowl ring.
But, Green Bay has a little history on their side here. Every season, we see a home underdog in the playoffs pull one of these games out. The Packers, for everything they aren't defensively, are likely a lot better than their record when a certain somebody is taking the snaps. That certain somebody now has a game under his belt after missing the previous seven weeks with a broken collarbone. That certain somebody has already made a Wild Card run to a Super Bowl victory.
That certain somebody is, of course, quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Basically the second guy on the Hall of Fame waiting list right now behind Tom Brady. Eliminator of weaknesses. Destroyer of defenses. Superstar in every sense of the word. (And all of this from a Bears fan.)
With Rodgers back in the Green Bay lineup, you can throw everything else out the window. Yes, rookie runner Eddie Lacy has been fantastic this year for the Pack. But this game is coming down to two people and which one imposes their will most effectively. This is between Harbaugh and Rodgers.
We'll certainly hear a lot about the brutal cold throughout the game, but I don't think that slows either of these two gunslingers. Rodgers will want to hit San Francisco with quick passes, up-tempo offense and shotgun runs to Lacy while putting together sustained drives and wearing out the defense. Harbaugh will try to keep a questionable Packers defense off balance with his trademark quick-hitting powers, traps and counters with both Gore and Kaeperkick.
Rodgers will want to get top target Jordy Nelson in space one-on-one for big gains and opportunities for Nelson to run after the catch. Harbaugh will do his best to manage the same for Davis, Crabtree and veteran Anquan Boldin.
These are two intense leaders who approach the game in much the same way. The only problem for Rodgers is that he's got no say in what Packers do on defense to slow down the multiple 49ers attack, resigned to his thoughts on the sideline when the offense isn't out there. Harbaugh? He touches it all.
And that's the basis for my picks in this one. I'm excited to hopefully see another instant classic, as we've been spoiled by great games to start this year's playoffs. We're going to be witnessing football at its core in Green Bay today. It's going to be a heavyweight slugfest between two of the best we've ever seen at their respective jobs. And it's going to be freezing cold! This will be a win-win-win for NFL fans this afternoon.
As for the picks, I've got Harbaugh and the Niners both winning and covering the three today. I just think, aside from the overall talent gap, Harbaugh's schemes on both sides of the ball will be too much for Rodgers and the Pack to overcome.
One thing's for sure, regardless of outcome: I don't think anyone wants to play either of these teams anytime soon. These are dangerous playoff teams.
San Francisco to win and to cover (-3).
PLAYOFF PICKS
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 2-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 3-0
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