The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are on quite the run of offseason splashes lately.
Whether it's been the massive signings of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton or the recent trade of slugger Mark Trumbo, it's no secret the Angels are doing all they can to build a winner in L.A., err, Anaheim.
Sure, they've been effectively stealing headlines and filling pages in recent offseasons, but that's about where the good news has stopped.
And yes, Pujols may have hit 30 homers and driven in more than 100 runs for the 11th time in his 13-year career after joining the club in 2012, but he hasn't been the same since leaving St. Louis for warmer climes.
Hamilton, well, he was simply a disaster in 2013, his first year with the team. There's not much left to say about that ordeal.
In fact, aside from other-worldly homegrown talent Mike Trout, you can make an argument that Trumbo was their most productive player since becoming a regular in 2011.
During Trumbo's tenure in Anaheim, he averaged more than 90 RBI a year while emerging as one of the American League's premier power bats. He's led the club in home runs each of last three years, piling up more than 30 per season. The guy can flat out crush left-handed pitching. And he's cheap!
So why trade him? And for pitching?
It certainly wasn't very Angels-like. My buddy and I always joke that if we were big league GMs we'd always want to trade with the Angels. It just seems they're directionless and have a dearth of fun talent. Anyways....
The move Angels GM Jerry Dipoto made earlier this month to acquire LHPs Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs certainly inked its share of headlines, to be sure. But this time the similarities might stop there. This move might actually work out. At least in the short-term.
For starters, the Angels got another quietly great year from front-liner Jered Weaver, when healthy. They also got a bit of a breakout from lefty CJ Wilson, who has been able to remain remarkably durable in his career as a starter in the AL West.
Enter Santiago, the crafty lefty acquired from the White Sox in the three-team deal sending Trumbo to Arizona, and you've got a combined 515 and 2/3 innings with a 3.41 ERA. That's not a bad baseline.
Assuming Weaver endures some more of the regression we've seen in his heater but is able to stay on the mound for his usual 200 innings, 3.41 against his career 3.24 seems reasonable.
Wilson has been an erratic pitcher, with swings in ERA over his 4-year starting career between 2.94 and 3.83, but has also booked a pair of seasons in the mid 3.30s. We'll call it 3.60, right on his career mark.
Where Wilson has been consistent, however, has been in his workload. Wilson has averaged 211 innings since converting from the bullpen in 2010, racking up the ninth-most IP in the league over that stretch.
Factoring in Santiago and his career (you guessed it) 3.41 ERA over 224 and 2/3 innings, that gives Anaheim a potential 3.47 ERA over 635 innings between their newly haloed threesome. For reference, that stingy mark would have finished 7th in the league in 2013, just ahead of AL West foe Oakland.
It's an optimistic outlook, to be sure, assuming good health and that Santiago's 2013 on the South Side was any reflection of the guy the Angels traded for. But, really, it's not assuming all that much. Those numbers are average for Wilson and Weaver. They could always perform better. You know, like last year.
And we haven't even gotten to Skaggs, the once-highly touted prospect who could slot into the fifth starter spot as early as spring training. If handled correctly, he could add some serious punch to the bottom of that rotation.
As for the offense, the Angels are surely going to miss Trumbo's power production. But, if Pujols and Hamilton return to anything close to their baseball-destroying form, that impact might be minimal.
Moving Trumbo is going to allow manager Mike Scioscia to have some added wiggle room in his lineup. He should now be able to comfortably rotate his stars on and off the field while keeping their bats in the lineup via the DH spot. This is a benefit Trumbo and his limited defensive abilities wouldn't allow.
It appears that the move will also free up space for the intriguingly toolsy Kole Calhoun and his career .772 OPS. Calhoun figures be a considerable upgrade in the outfield, as well, teaming up with Trout and Hamilton to give the Halos a nice trio behind those aforementioned arms.
And let's not forget about Dipolo's pre-Thanksgiving trade for Cardinal folkhero David Freese, a move that gives Anaheim something they haven't had much luck finding in its uneven history: a cornerstone third baseman. And a good one, at that. After all, he's just a year removed from a 20-homer season. Oh, and he was also MVP of the World Series. So he's got that going for him.
Dipolo's not finished, either, adding ageless Raul Ibanez on Friday.
All of this is adding up to a very nice, if oddly understated, offseason for Dipolo and the Angels. They've been able to remain a big mover in a relatively quiet Hot Stove period thus far, and they seem to have cleverly, if uncharacteristically, added by subtracting this time around.
When they are adding, they're picking up useful pieces mostly via trade, protecting their draft picks while remaining true to their plans to spend (and win) now, while Pujols could still outplay his 2014 salary of $23 million in terms of value.
While it's taken a little longer than expected for all those headlines to turn into wins, the moves Dipolo has made this offseason to hedge the big bets of years past have set his club up for what looks to be a bounce back year in 2014.
But for the Angels to truly contend this year and beyond, they won't be able to sit on their laurels and admire their work for long.
After all, they've still got a bullpen to reconstruct.
Contact the writer at careeryearblog@gmail.com
Monday, December 30, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
nfl: what's up with football?
If it's late Sunday morning during the NFL season, you know where to find me: on the couch, frantically second-guessing every thought I've ever had in my life as my cursor hovers over the 'Submit' button on my fantasy football lineup page. I'm fucked.
Don't laugh. You've been there, too. We all have. Nowadays, it seems you can walk up to your cousin or uncle or garbageman or Congressman and know you've got fantasy football in common.
But it didn't used to be this way.
I remember a time when fantasy football was an insiders' game. Something fun you did with your buddies. A not-yet-frowned-upon way to gamble. A veritable wellspring of things to talk shit about.
Not something you discussed with your pharmacist or your girlfriend.
In fact, your girlfriend probably thought you were a loser for following the game so close, for acting like you had some -any- real skin in a professional football game played by professional football players and coached by professional football coaches, none of which involved you in the slightest. And she wasn't alone.
Over the last handful of years, fantasy football has exploded into the mainstream. Mothers and daughters play it, grandfathers and grandchildren play it. It seems like damn near everyone has been let in on the secret. Our secret. My secret.
In a day and age when we have several television shows, not to mention myriad other consumables, dedicated solely to the subject, it's naive to think we're ever going back to that simpler time. It's sad, I know. But it's the (fantasy) world we live in.
And should it come as much of a surprise? Now more than ever people are trying to escape into the Internet to try and convince themselves they are something they aren't. A wizard, a model, a sportswriter. Anything but the man in the mirror.
As the tangible and digital worlds continue to blend, it's no wonder people seem to be losing their sense of self. We can act anonymously, impersonate another or even assume a fake name when roaming the Web, and nobody's the wiser. (Well, kind of.)
When people start to lose their sense of self, things often start to get ugly. Fast. History has taught and fantasy football has followed suit. Already this season we've had stories of players being harassed and threatened
And to be honest, it's hitting closer and closer to home.
Just this past Sunday, my own fantasy team was vying for a spot in the championship game when my hopes were dashed by Jamaal Charles touchdown after touchdown after touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. Needless to say, I was pissed. Real pissed. Me, a flesh-and-blood adult male, vehemently upset that my fantasy team (repeat, fantasy team) had lost.
Wait, isn't this supposed to be fun? When did this get so serious? When did I get so serious?
After a brief moment of reflection (and another 10,000 moments of anger, if I'm being honest), I calmed down and put things into perspective. I'm lucky to even be in a position to play fantasy football, much less have the fortune to be in the semifinals, I realized. It was all very kumbaya.
But then I saw the real news headlines, and like so many Sundays this fall and winter, they were loaded with tragedy. But not just the usual plight-of-the-world tragedies we've become numb to thanks to Barbara Walters and the like. These were football tragedies. No, check that. These were actual tragedies involving football. More accurately, these tragedies were likely caused by football.
Tragedies like stabbings, stabbings, and more stabbings. Even stadium deaths shrouded in mystery. Fans so drunk they fall out of the upper deck. These are violent and mindless crimes perpetrated almost exclusively by NFL fans against other NFL fans, and are often, if not always, assisted by alcohol consumption. What the hell is going on here?
Now, I've never been a fan of bleeding heart, pie-in-the-sky diatribes, but something is definitely happening with the culture of football and the way fans, umm, express themselves on Sundays. And something's got to be done about it. People are dying at our football games. Yes, that's plural. People are dying. At football games.
And there's this: Why haven't we heard more about it? Shouldn't those above links look at least a little familiar? What the hell is going on here?
The Rolling Stones still catch flack for Altamont, where Hells Angels stabbed a fan in the crowd during the band's final show of their United States tour in December of 1969.
That was one guy, 44 years ago. Still tragic, to be sure, but that's a lot of sand through the hourglass.
So why is it, exactly, that more people aren't talking about the deaths occurring monthly at our NFL stadiums? What the hell is going on here?
This is where I'm stumped. In the age of not one, but two major television news networks operating around-the-clock with programming dedicated solely to sports, you'd think something like this would get covered pretty much non-stop. Or until it stopped. Just like every bullying incident or PED scandal or anything else not involving loss of human life at a football game.
And from what I can tell, it's the tragedies occuring around NFL events that manage to stay off the radar. Or at least somewhat so.
We all recall the horrible summer day in 2011 when fan Shannon Stone fell from his seat in front of his son at a Texas Rangers game in Arlington, dying from his injuries. The story was front-page news at the time and frequently followed up on, until the Rangers dedicated a statue in Stone's honor at the start of the 2012 season.
But these deaths in football culture seem to somehow slip through the cracks of the news cycle. Sure, there will be 18-inches in the local newspaper and 20 seconds on the nightly news, but that's about it. It's all X's and O's by the following Sunday.
How many fans need to fall victim to this violence before we've got a real pandemic on our hands? Or at least before the talking heads and powers that be start to take notice?
Of course, death is an all-too-familiar narrative in the NFL these days. From suicide to CTE to concussions to the physical toll taken by the game on so many of its own, the NFL might as well be running a wildly profitable morgue. Shoot, commissioner Roger Goodell might be the Grim Reaper for all we know.
But one thing we do know is that America is as football crazed as ever, setting records for the loudest stadiums in the world and making Goodell and The Shield heaps and heaps of cash.
If more people are involved in the NFL than ever in some way, shape or form, then stories like these should carry more weight, not less. We've seen the media force Goodell's hand before with concussions and replacement refs, so why can't we start a conversation about making our NFL stadiums family friendly again? Or at least a place where you don't have to fear for your life.
The question, much less an answer, is all much too large for me or any one man, (Goodell included). But the narrative has to begin. There's got to be more urgency here to right these wrongs. We haven't even mentioned the on-field side of this. The blows to the head, the bounties, the blows to the knees, the PEDs. The 10-plus guys per game dragged off the field as we cut to commercial. The player in jail on first-degree murder charges.
There's just so much worthy of discussion within the culture of football as it stands today. And if fans and analysts and the league itself continue to keep quiet, the game will be what suffers most in the end. Already parents are steering their kids clear of the gridiron and toward more health-friendly sports like soccer and basketball.
It's a difficult conversation, to be sure, but there's no doubt it's an important one. Perhaps the most important in terms of football's longevity as America's game of choice.
It's time we stop talking fantasy and focus on what's really going on.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
mlb: quick thoughts - capping.. what?
By now I'm sure we're all aware of the news that broke earlier this week, when Major League Baseball and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league agreed to cap player posting fees at $20 for the next three years.
But what is MLB Commissioner Bud Selig really trying to accomplish with this move?
Coincidentally (wink), we've recently learned Japanese super-free agent Masahiro Tanaka will likely no longer be posted by his current employer, the defending Nippon champion Rakuten Golden Eagles.
This, I have to think, is not what Selig had in mind when he was advocating for the new cap.
What Selig likely had in mind was parity, something one can now find overflowing in towns like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Kansas City (had to). These are towns where meaningful baseball is rarely played past Labor Day, much less well into football season.
But now, hope abounds.
Indeed, parity has been great for baseball. And Selig has made it abundantly clear in the form of a competitive balance lottery, slot money for draft picks and continued revenue sharing that the league's front office will continue to make an effort to help the little guy.
But what Selig has also made abundantly clear is his wish for baseball to expand its global reach, having overseen perhaps the most successful era of international stars baseball, or any sport, has ever witnessed.
It's become a relatively mundane practice to sign an international player to big money lately. Young international players like the Dodgers' Yasiel Puig and Marlins' Jose Fernandez are bursting on to the scene more frequently now than ever.
Shoot, Japan alone has produced three of the highest paid outfielders... of all time! You know, guys like Ichiro, Matsui and... Fukudome? Why would anyone want to cap this!?
Selig is setting the wrong example here. His heart is in the right place, never wanting to leave out the Marlins and Astros of the world, but this time he blew it. Plain and simple.
Regardless of who would have inked Tanaka this offseason, there's no doubt it's a better story than his not posting because the number was too low.
Is it too early to say I miss the good old days?
careeryearblog@gmail.com
But what is MLB Commissioner Bud Selig really trying to accomplish with this move?
Coincidentally (wink), we've recently learned Japanese super-free agent Masahiro Tanaka will likely no longer be posted by his current employer, the defending Nippon champion Rakuten Golden Eagles.
This, I have to think, is not what Selig had in mind when he was advocating for the new cap.
What Selig likely had in mind was parity, something one can now find overflowing in towns like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Kansas City (had to). These are towns where meaningful baseball is rarely played past Labor Day, much less well into football season.
But now, hope abounds.
Indeed, parity has been great for baseball. And Selig has made it abundantly clear in the form of a competitive balance lottery, slot money for draft picks and continued revenue sharing that the league's front office will continue to make an effort to help the little guy.
But what Selig has also made abundantly clear is his wish for baseball to expand its global reach, having overseen perhaps the most successful era of international stars baseball, or any sport, has ever witnessed.
It's become a relatively mundane practice to sign an international player to big money lately. Young international players like the Dodgers' Yasiel Puig and Marlins' Jose Fernandez are bursting on to the scene more frequently now than ever.
Shoot, Japan alone has produced three of the highest paid outfielders... of all time! You know, guys like Ichiro, Matsui and... Fukudome? Why would anyone want to cap this!?
Selig is setting the wrong example here. His heart is in the right place, never wanting to leave out the Marlins and Astros of the world, but this time he blew it. Plain and simple.
Regardless of who would have inked Tanaka this offseason, there's no doubt it's a better story than his not posting because the number was too low.
Is it too early to say I miss the good old days?
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Sunday, December 15, 2013
mlb: an undervalued asset. right?
Quick, baseball fans, give me the name of a 26-year old catcher who so far in his 4-year career (just 176 games played) has been worth nearly 6 wins for his team. I'll wait.
Need a hint? He made just over $500k in 2013, his first full season behind the plate, and is under team control until 2018.
Still nothing?
How about some stats to help out: This guy posted a .274/.349/.397 line in his 380 at bats last year while saving more runs with his defense than perennial All-Star and MVP candidate Yadier Molina.
Stumped? C'mon guys, it's not like we're living in the height of the catcher era right now.
Ok, fine, I'll give you the answer. The mystery man I'm referring to is none other than Chicago Cubs catcher Welington Castillo, a player who gave us a glimpse last year why he just might be one of the most underrated assets in all of baseball. Or why he might have all of us fooled into thinking that way.
While it may seem the 26-year old took his time before finally making a big league impact (he was signed as an amateur free agent in 2004), his rise to the everyday catching role has been a steady one. In 2006 he debuted in the Cubs organization in rookie ball, and from there he began the usual progression through a system trying to determine which of its hundreds of assets might someday help the big club bring home a winner. If you've read this far, I don't need to tell you that the Cubs have been searching for a winner for a very long time.
In 2007, playing A ball with the Peoria Chiefs, Castillo burst on the scene with 11 homers in 317 ABs, posting an impressive .757 OPS. He also showed high-end defense in his 98 games behind the dish.
He would continue to put up above-average stats throughout the next few seasons before capping an impressive minor league career with bests in slugging (.498) and OPS (.815), while bopping 13 homers in 2010 with the AAA Iowa Cubs.
Following his career year, Castillo had a couple cups of coffee with the big club in 2011 and 2012 (33 ABs combined) before finally catching his break. In 2012, in the middle of yet another Cubs-like season in which the losses were racking up and management was desperate to ship bust after bust out of town, the Cubs dealt former NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto to Texas for righty Jake Brigham (Who? Thought you'd never ask). Castillo finally had a chance to show what he could do.
And show he did. Well, kind of. Actually, Castillo was essentially the definition of league-average in every facet of the game, posting an OPS+ of 103 (or 3% better than league average, on a park-adjusted basis) and throwing in half a win in defensive value to boot.
Ok, admittedly, this doesn't exactly sound like the pedigree of someone who's been touted as the heir apparent to one of the best catchers we've ever seen. But it gets better. I think. Over the course of the next summer, in fact, bored baseball writers and bloggers finally begin to take notice. Which is good. I think.
To start 2013, the third year of highly, ahem, sought after GM Theo Epstein's stint with the Cubs, the team had plenty of question marks. Coming off 91- and 101-loss seasons to start his tenure, there's little doubt there was much to think about in terms of his current roster and the talent the team had on hand.
So Epstein wanted to see what he had in Castillo, granting him the opening day nod behind the plate. The catcher would go on to have another solid, if not spectacular, offensive year, adding a couple wins and posting a 104 OPS+. Shoot, the guy had a higher OPS than star first baseman Anthony Rizzo (!).
Where Castillo really seemed to shine, however, was on defense. But it is here where things also become a little muddy in terms of player valuation. At least, that's what the stats were saying. Take the following:
Below you will see two different statistical sets, advanced and contemporary, both from Castillo's 2013 season in which he played 113 games at catcher for the Cubs:
Advanced:
Led MLB catchers with a 2.8 dWAR (defense-independent Wins Above Replacement) and Defensive Runs Saved with 19. He also led all catchers in good fielding plays (whatever that means) by a long margin, with 10.
So while it's easy to look at that gobbeldy gook and think you're reading about a good defensive player, take a second look at what the old fashioned box scores are saying about Castillo's glovework:
Contemporary:
Tied for the lead in errors committed for NL catchers (10) and finished fourth in passed balls (8), just one behind a three-way tie for first among those same backstops. He also permitted 67 stolen bases, good for third-most in the NL, on his way to throwing out just 29% of the steals attempted against him. And he did all this while finishing outside the top five in games played.
This brings us to a fork in the road for Mr. Castillo's future hopes, as well as the much bigger question of which stats are more accurate in measuring a players' actual value, both current and future. Do advanced stats, though inherently flawed, trump more traditional measures due to their fancy ballpark adjustments and position-independent formulas? Or can we still come away from a day at the yard with a good idea of a player's capabilities by using our trained fans' eye?
The answer, like most, more than likely lies somewhere in between. Is it great that Castillo led the league in all of those advanced defensive metrics? I can tell you with at least some degree of confidence that it sure doesn't hurt.
And is it such a bad thing that he committed all those errors while allowing more than two-thirds of attempted base stealers to move 90 feet closer to scoring while merely dirtying up the ol' uniform? Well, yes, but maybe not as bad as it might seem.
What I come away with after a little context is a picture of a very busy player with not much help in terms of talent around him. Despite all the errors, Castillo still comfortably had the second most assists among NL catchers last year, ending 85 baserunners' trips with an out in some way, shape or form. To me, and to most reasonable followers, you're going to make errors here and there if you're getting that many opportunities with the ball in your hands. Especially with a young player like Castillo. And with other youngsters like Rizzo and Starlin Castro on the receiving end of some of said opportunities. (Hey, not everyone can be Andrelton Simmons.)
As for the runners, not all of that is on Castillo. The (Bad News) Cubs haven't exactly been known to offer up too much assistance to their catcher in this regard, either.
So, the bottom line is that what the Cubs have on their hands is an interesting player once he's all healed up from a knee procedure that ended his 2013 prematurely. For Theo Epstein, interesting is much better than what he's looking at elsewhere on the diamond.
In fact, Epstein's got a player he knows will be able to handle the rigors of catching every afternoon in Wrigley Field, who will give him reliable offensive contributions, and who has the upside to improve as he enters his age-27 season, when ballplayers typically hit their peak. He's got the guy who was his team's most valuable player in 2013, if not its most marquee name.
At the very least, he's got a familiar name for new Cubs manager Rick Renteria to pencil in behind the plate. How many teams can say that?
But as of today, I'm tempering my expectations that he's ready to join the elite and become the Cubs' catcher of the future. While his play to date has certainly been a welcome surprise for a fan of a league in need of more star catchers, his relatively blah (scientific term) offensive pedigree and the general shakiness of the defensive advanced metrics argument leave me wanting more in a cornerstone backstop. In other words, I want to see it before I can believe it.
For now, it would seem, the tangibles win out.
Need a hint? He made just over $500k in 2013, his first full season behind the plate, and is under team control until 2018.
Still nothing?
How about some stats to help out: This guy posted a .274/.349/.397 line in his 380 at bats last year while saving more runs with his defense than perennial All-Star and MVP candidate Yadier Molina.
Stumped? C'mon guys, it's not like we're living in the height of the catcher era right now.
Ok, fine, I'll give you the answer. The mystery man I'm referring to is none other than Chicago Cubs catcher Welington Castillo, a player who gave us a glimpse last year why he just might be one of the most underrated assets in all of baseball. Or why he might have all of us fooled into thinking that way.
While it may seem the 26-year old took his time before finally making a big league impact (he was signed as an amateur free agent in 2004), his rise to the everyday catching role has been a steady one. In 2006 he debuted in the Cubs organization in rookie ball, and from there he began the usual progression through a system trying to determine which of its hundreds of assets might someday help the big club bring home a winner. If you've read this far, I don't need to tell you that the Cubs have been searching for a winner for a very long time.
In 2007, playing A ball with the Peoria Chiefs, Castillo burst on the scene with 11 homers in 317 ABs, posting an impressive .757 OPS. He also showed high-end defense in his 98 games behind the dish.
He would continue to put up above-average stats throughout the next few seasons before capping an impressive minor league career with bests in slugging (.498) and OPS (.815), while bopping 13 homers in 2010 with the AAA Iowa Cubs.
Following his career year, Castillo had a couple cups of coffee with the big club in 2011 and 2012 (33 ABs combined) before finally catching his break. In 2012, in the middle of yet another Cubs-like season in which the losses were racking up and management was desperate to ship bust after bust out of town, the Cubs dealt former NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto to Texas for righty Jake Brigham (Who? Thought you'd never ask). Castillo finally had a chance to show what he could do.
And show he did. Well, kind of. Actually, Castillo was essentially the definition of league-average in every facet of the game, posting an OPS+ of 103 (or 3% better than league average, on a park-adjusted basis) and throwing in half a win in defensive value to boot.
Ok, admittedly, this doesn't exactly sound like the pedigree of someone who's been touted as the heir apparent to one of the best catchers we've ever seen. But it gets better. I think. Over the course of the next summer, in fact, bored baseball writers and bloggers finally begin to take notice. Which is good. I think.
To start 2013, the third year of highly, ahem, sought after GM Theo Epstein's stint with the Cubs, the team had plenty of question marks. Coming off 91- and 101-loss seasons to start his tenure, there's little doubt there was much to think about in terms of his current roster and the talent the team had on hand.
So Epstein wanted to see what he had in Castillo, granting him the opening day nod behind the plate. The catcher would go on to have another solid, if not spectacular, offensive year, adding a couple wins and posting a 104 OPS+. Shoot, the guy had a higher OPS than star first baseman Anthony Rizzo (!).
Where Castillo really seemed to shine, however, was on defense. But it is here where things also become a little muddy in terms of player valuation. At least, that's what the stats were saying. Take the following:
Below you will see two different statistical sets, advanced and contemporary, both from Castillo's 2013 season in which he played 113 games at catcher for the Cubs:
Advanced:
Led MLB catchers with a 2.8 dWAR (defense-independent Wins Above Replacement) and Defensive Runs Saved with 19. He also led all catchers in good fielding plays (whatever that means) by a long margin, with 10.
So while it's easy to look at that gobbeldy gook and think you're reading about a good defensive player, take a second look at what the old fashioned box scores are saying about Castillo's glovework:
Contemporary:
Tied for the lead in errors committed for NL catchers (10) and finished fourth in passed balls (8), just one behind a three-way tie for first among those same backstops. He also permitted 67 stolen bases, good for third-most in the NL, on his way to throwing out just 29% of the steals attempted against him. And he did all this while finishing outside the top five in games played.
This brings us to a fork in the road for Mr. Castillo's future hopes, as well as the much bigger question of which stats are more accurate in measuring a players' actual value, both current and future. Do advanced stats, though inherently flawed, trump more traditional measures due to their fancy ballpark adjustments and position-independent formulas? Or can we still come away from a day at the yard with a good idea of a player's capabilities by using our trained fans' eye?
The answer, like most, more than likely lies somewhere in between. Is it great that Castillo led the league in all of those advanced defensive metrics? I can tell you with at least some degree of confidence that it sure doesn't hurt.
And is it such a bad thing that he committed all those errors while allowing more than two-thirds of attempted base stealers to move 90 feet closer to scoring while merely dirtying up the ol' uniform? Well, yes, but maybe not as bad as it might seem.
What I come away with after a little context is a picture of a very busy player with not much help in terms of talent around him. Despite all the errors, Castillo still comfortably had the second most assists among NL catchers last year, ending 85 baserunners' trips with an out in some way, shape or form. To me, and to most reasonable followers, you're going to make errors here and there if you're getting that many opportunities with the ball in your hands. Especially with a young player like Castillo. And with other youngsters like Rizzo and Starlin Castro on the receiving end of some of said opportunities. (Hey, not everyone can be Andrelton Simmons.)
As for the runners, not all of that is on Castillo. The (Bad News) Cubs haven't exactly been known to offer up too much assistance to their catcher in this regard, either.
So, the bottom line is that what the Cubs have on their hands is an interesting player once he's all healed up from a knee procedure that ended his 2013 prematurely. For Theo Epstein, interesting is much better than what he's looking at elsewhere on the diamond.
In fact, Epstein's got a player he knows will be able to handle the rigors of catching every afternoon in Wrigley Field, who will give him reliable offensive contributions, and who has the upside to improve as he enters his age-27 season, when ballplayers typically hit their peak. He's got the guy who was his team's most valuable player in 2013, if not its most marquee name.
At the very least, he's got a familiar name for new Cubs manager Rick Renteria to pencil in behind the plate. How many teams can say that?
But as of today, I'm tempering my expectations that he's ready to join the elite and become the Cubs' catcher of the future. While his play to date has certainly been a welcome surprise for a fan of a league in need of more star catchers, his relatively blah (scientific term) offensive pedigree and the general shakiness of the defensive advanced metrics argument leave me wanting more in a cornerstone backstop. In other words, I want to see it before I can believe it.
For now, it would seem, the tangibles win out.
welcome
Hello and happy holidays to what I can only hope becomes a massive online readership. A quick intro and a few things about the space before we get started:
- It is my hope to update this a few times a week with posts, thoughts and ramblings spanning the (sports) world we live in.
- The topics covered here will be widespread, and I will try not to be too much of a homer*.
- Send any comments, positive, negative or otherwise, to our email address, and I'll respond to as many as I am able. I will be sure to read them all.
- As for me, I am just a passionate sports fan wanting to get back into writing. I worked as a newspaper reporter for 3 years in college, covering everything from breaking news stories to football recruiting to restaurant and concert reviews. I am most certainly not qualified to be taken too seriously. Yet, at least.
- As advanced statistics become more mainstream (and more available to the public), it is my hope to give takes and back them up with facts, which I will link to where possible.
- I also hope to have some contributors from time to time. Keep your eye on the byline.
- Lastly, it is my hope to get a little better at this thing as we go, so your patience in the early going will be appreciated!
*Full disclosure: I'm a lifelong Kansas City Royals,
Chicago Bears and Nebraska Cornhuskers fan.
Ok, now that that's out of the way, let's get going.....
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