Sunday, January 12, 2014

nfl: divisional round picks: broncos-chargers

San Diego at Denver (Broncos (-9.5))

After a pretty chalky weekend of matchups, I'm afraid not much is going to change with our final game of the quartet.

Quite simply put, I think we see the best that Peyton Manning and the Broncos have to offer this afternoon. This is it for them. It starts now. The road to Manning's second Super Bowl, and the franchise's first since John Elway was quarterbacking them over a decade ago.

Yes, the Chargers were able to come into Denver and steal a win on a Thursday night earlier in the regular season. And yes, San Diego has given Manning fits throughout his spectacular career. But this afternoon will be different, and Phillip Rivers and the Chargers will be left in Manning's wake.

There's really not too much more to say about this one. The Chargers have been the comeback story of the year, arguably a less likely turnaround than division rival Kansas City's shocker of a season. It's been a great ride, and I'm very excited to see what the future holds for Rivers and his gang of young players. But the buck stops with Manning tonight.

Denver has been the prohibitive favorite nearly all season, and they'll be gunning for a showdown with familiar foe Tom Brady and the Patriots in next week's AFC title game. The Chargers just won't manage to put up much of a roadblock.

You've already heard all you need to know about these teams, so I'll just get right to it. I'm taking the Broncos to win and cover handily in this one, setting up an AFC title game for the ages next week.

Denver to win and cover (-9.5).

PLAYOFF PICKS
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 6-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 5-1-1

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nlf: divisional round picks: 49ers-panthers


San Francisco at Carolina (49ers (-1))

Cam Newton. Colin Kaepernick. Two young, exciting quarterbacks with very promising careers in front of them, squaring off in a Round 2 playoff showdown. Can it get any better than that?

Well, if you're a fan of defense, the answer is yes.

Sure, the Niners and Panthers feature two of the best dual-threat QBs in the NFL, but where they hang their hat is on the other side of the ball, tormenting opposing offenses with freak athletes at nearly every position in the front seven.

This matchup is going to come down to two superstars who may not even get their hands on the ball. I'm referring, of course, to 49ers middle linebacker Patrick Willis and Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. These two defenders are the keys to their respective castles, and also to a prolonged playoff run.

Last week we saw Willis and the Niners' defense wreak havoc on a Green Bay offense that had just gotten its leader back in Aaron Rodgers and featured a Rookie of the Year candidate at running back in Eddie Lacy. Willis and company stymied the Packer offense all night, getting to Rodgers early and often, forcing him to make quick decisions if he wanted to stay upright. They stuffed Lacy at the line time and time again, delivering punishing blows to the big back that had him rotating on and off the field and never really able to establish a rhythm on the ground.

To be sure, the 49ers have suffered their fair share of setbacks on defense compared to the group that finished in the top 5 a year ago, most notably with the off-the-field struggles of pass-rusher Aldon Smith. They've also had a tough time finding consistency in the secondary, even cutting ties with former coverage wiz Nnamdi Asomugha mid-season.

But the one constant head coach Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers have been able to count on has been Willis, whose played every snap during his seven seasons in a San Francisco uniform. And for most of those seven years, he's been the best middle linebacker in football not named Ray Lewis. His closest comps on Pro-Football-Reference are Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas. This is a future Hall of Famer if I've ever seen one, and he will be prominently featured this afternoon as the Niners once again try and slow down Newton and that Panthers rushing attack.

Now, about those Panthers, and specifically Kuechly, who has exploded onto the scene much like his quarterback in his first two years in the league. He was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year by a landslide. He's been able to stabilize an oft-maligned unit and give head-coach-turned-folk-hero Riverboat Ron Rivera an Urlacher-esque presence in the middle of his defense.

And for all the press Rivera's gotten throughout the latter portion of the season for his aggressive offensive tactics, he's still very much a defensive-minded coach, having come from a background as coordinator of some of the best defenses we've seen in the last 10 years. It's no surprise that his most successful seasons came with the Bears when he had a reliable All-Pro to count on at middle linebacker.

Even though Carolina decided to sever ties with general manager Marty Hurney before this season, he certainly did an admirable job filling in the defense with players who complement Kuechly and get after the quarterback. The only place he largely failed to do so is in the defensive backfield, where the Panthers are questionable at best and remain susceptible to big plays in the passing game.

Simply put, we're going to be treated to quite the showcase of middle linebacker play this afternoon, as Willis and Kuechly will no doubt add to their already impressive resumes as destroyers of opposing ball carriers.

But the biggest differentiator in this contest, as is the case in most playoff matchups, isn't how the superstars play. It's going to come down to their supporting casts, both on offense and defense.

We know the front seven will be stiff, but will the Panthers secondary be able to hold up against Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and an increasingly impressive Niners passing game? 

Same goes for San Francisco, as they'll need to slow down Newton and his band of misfits on the outside, one that drove down the field for an improbable game-winning touchdown in the final minute the last time these two squared off?

That contest ended 10-9 in favor of Carolina. It was an old-school, physical battle between the trenches. An instant classic that provided a great story line for Newton and his still ascending career arc.

And this is what scares me. You see, the 49ers really don't need any more motivation to win this game. They've already came so close to a Super Bowl victory a year ago, having had their glory snatched away by the Baltimore Ravens. Now, Harbaugh and company have their home loss to Carolina to point to in addition to all they've been through in his tenure. This 49ers team is out for blood.

The Panthers? Well, they've really never been in this situation with Rivera and Newton at the helm. This is their first playoffs together, and after an up-and-down season that saw them rip off an improbable 11-1 stretch after starting the season 1-3, it's just hard to guess how they'll respond. To add to that uncertainty, pass-catching stalwart Steve Smith will be hobbled by a knee injury that's given him fits in his attempt to recover.

Just like the Pats last night, I'm afraid this 49ers club is a team build for playoff success. They've got everything working for them, everything in their corner. Oh, and they've got a better collection of players up and down the roster. I just don't see this one being particularly close.

It will be fun to see how Newton and Keuchly respond to the spotlight in their first playoff games, but their effectiveness against a seasoned 49ers group remains to be seen. One point doesn't quite seem like enough to protect them against Willis and company.

San Francisco to win and cover (-1).

PLAYOFF PICKS
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 5-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 4-1-1

Saturday, January 11, 2014

nfl: divisional round picks: patriots-colts

Indianapolis at New England (Patriots (-7))

Taking a look at these two teams, the similarities are uncanny. Both have franchise quarterbacks, both rely heavily on who's-that-guy types at the skill positions, and both have had their fair share of struggles on defense throughout the 2013 season.

Now, I don't have as much to say about this matchup as, say, Bill Simmons, but I would like to share a couple things before I get to my pick.

First, this game is expected to be played in some inclement weather in the Boston area. Wind and heavy rains are expected throughout the contest. We're watching right now what those elements can do to a quarterback who's not used to playing in them. I just saw a stat right before halftime of the Saints-Seahawks game showing Drew Brees with three completions for 19 yards after nearly 30 minutes of football in the rain and driving winds of Seattle. Brees, as you know, is used to the temperature- and precipitation-controlled confines of the Superdome in New Orleans.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is also used to playing indoors, in Indianapolis, after playing his college ball in the relatively mild climes of the Pac-12. It will be very interesting to see how the weather affects Luck's otherworldly abilities tonight.

Tom Brady, on the other hand, played his college football at Michigan before joining the Pats in 2000. He's seen his fair share of poor elements, and he's been mostly successful. This, along with all of his experience in big games with head coach Bill Belichick, will play a starring role this evening.

Second, I'm not sure people are playing up the impact of last week's emotional win over the Kansas City Chiefs enough. They completed the second-biggest comeback in playoff history in that win, and did it in spectacular fashion. I don't have any stats or anything, but it just seems like more teams fall flat after performances like that than continue their inspired play. Just this past Monday we saw Auburn fail to pull another rabbit from their seemingly bottomless hat in the national championship game. Even though they played great and provided us with a phenomenal final act for the BCS, their number just seemed to be finally up against a superior opponent.

And that's what I think tonight's game is going to look like. Luck and the Colts have been on an incredible ride since he was drafted prior to last season. They've been almost unbeatable in close games. They've completed unreal comebacks time and time again. They've been super easy to root for. They've been a great story.

But tonight, in the wind and rain of Foxboro, the clock is going to strike midnight. The Pats, with all that Brady and Belichick have been through just this year alone, are looking like a sleeping giant right now. They're hitting on all cylinders, and the complete unknowns that have made up seemingly their entire roster this year are coming on strong just at the right time. That's the benefit of having essentially two head coaches. Belichick is a defensive wizard. Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are his near-equals on offense. They've had 18 weeks to coach up the young guys. And due to recent struggles in playoffs past, they're as hungry as ever.

Luck and the Colts are about to run headlong into the wood chipper in New England, and seven points aren't enough to save them.

New England to win and cover (-7).

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nfl: divisional round picks: seahawks-saints

New Orleans at Seattle (Seahawks (-7.5))

Welcome back for another installment of our NFL playoff picks. This weekend we've got another exciting slate on tap as teams vie for the opportunity to advance to their respective conference's championship games.

The first game of the weekend doesn't require too much digging, in my opinion. These teams played just six short weeks ago in Seattle, and that game was not close. Not in yards, not in turnovers, not in points. The Seahawks simply took the wind out of the Saints' sails halfway through the first quarter and never turned back, polishing off a 34-7 win in front of a mostly-sleeping Monday night audience.

This time around, the circumstances really aren't much different. The game is in Seattle, a place that's been widely recognized as providing the largest home field advantage in the league due to the 12th Man and the unique weather conditions. It was a prime time game, one of the biggest matchups of the regular season for both teams. And both squads were relatively healthy heading into it.

Now, Seattle is coming off a Wild Card Weekend in which they did not participate, and they're as healthy as they've been all season long, welcoming back game-breaking wide receiver Percy Harvin with an unlimited snap count and return duties.

During that Week 13 matchup with the Saints, the 'Hawks were able to hold Drew Brees and that explosive New Orleans passing attack to just 147 yards while piling up their usual interceptions and pass deflections all over the field. This defense was constructed with these exact matchups in mind. Combining long, lanky defensive backs with athletic pass rushers on the outside, Seattle is essentially a passing offense's worst nightmare.

And, although they were able to power their way to an opening round victory in Philadelphia last weekend, the Saints are still very much a passing offense. Brees and head coach Sean Payton are famous for their multiple attack, combining deadly accurate quarterback play with brilliant play design to spread defenses out and take advantage of mismatches in coverage.

This is also an offense loaded with playmakers on the outside, using seam-running stalwarts Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston with speedsters Robert Meachem and Kenny Stills in tandem to torture under-matched defenses. If you're not able to play man-to-man coverage against Brees while forcing him to move around in the pocket, you're going to be in for a very long day.

But last week Payton did something we're not used to seeing from the pass-happy guru: run the football. They beat the Eagles at their own game this past Saturday, rushing 36 times at 5.1 yards per carry. Led by former first-round pick (post-hype fantasy sleeper alert!) Mark Ingram, who carried 18 times for 97 yards and a touchdown, the Saints controlled the clock and kept Chip Kelly's explosive offense on the sidelines en route to a 26-24 victory.

Popular opinion around the talk-show circuit would have you think that it would be in the Saints' best interest for them to employ a similar gameplan this afternoon. After all, when the Seahawks did look vulnerable this year (which wasn't much, but stay with me here), it was when teams ran the ball right at them and controlled the game on the ground.

I'm of a different opinion, however. I believe for the Saints to have a chance to advance to the NFC title game, they're going to have to win the way we're used to seeing them win with Payton and Brees at the helm. They're going to have to win this game through the air, utilizing the threat of their newly established run game to keep the Seahawk pass rush at bay with play-action passes and added protection for Brees as he scans the defense for mismatches.

The Seahawks are going to try to play man-to-man defense on the outside with their big defensive backs. They're going to rush the passer and try to fluster Brees, forcing him into check-downs and poor decisions that lead to turnovers. This has been their blueprint dating back to the start of last year, and there's really been no reason to shift their philosophy. They're the toughest team to beat at home in the league, and it all starts with that tenacious pass defense.

On offense, Seattle will employ a bruising combination of Marshawn Lynch at the point of attack and Russell Wilson on the edges. If the Saints aren't able to keep Wilson in the pocket, their odds of winning will go from slim to none.

In terms of a pick in this game, it's all going to come down to New Orleans and their ability to dictate things on offense. The Seahawks aren't built to play from behind, and the Saints will need to give them a taste of their own medicine and get out to a quick start, likely through the air. If they can pop Seattle in the mouth with a couple of big pass plays early, Payton will be able to lean on their newfound ground game to chew up the clock and keep Wilson on the sideline.

But, as is usually the case in Seattle, they'll be battling more than just the league's top pass defense and most boisterous crowd. They'll need to throw effectively through a light rain that's expected to fall throughout the contest.

The chips appear to be stacked a little too heavily against the Saints and their attempt to play spoiler for a second straight week on the road. I do see this being a close contest, but Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are just too tough at home, especially when you add in the elements. Seattle wins this one to advance to the NFC title game next week.

Seattle wins, New Orleans covers (+7.5).

PLAYOFF PICKS
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 3-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 3-0-1

careeryearblog@gmail.com

Sunday, January 5, 2014

nfl: wild card weekend picks: 49ers-packers

San Francisco at Green Bay (49ers (-3))

The final game of the NFL's Wild Card Weekend will no doubt be a fun one, and not just because of the two traditional NFC powers who are set to square off. Forecasters are predicting the weather at storied Lambeau Field in Green Bay will be well below zero come kickoff. This is what playoff football is all about.

As for the teams, their roads to this Week 18 showdown really couldn't have been more different.

The 49ers are simply rolling heading into the playoffs, having won six straight on their way to a 12-4 record. If not for division foe Seattle, San Francisco wouldn't even be playing this week.

But it's not like the 49ers need the rest. They're as healthy as they've been in months, welcoming back Michael Crabtree and easing him back into his featured role in the passing game over the last few weeks.

Frank Gore had himself yet another 1,000-yard rushing season. Colin Kaepernick is looking more comfortable. Vernon Davis is a freak. The front seven has seen its play pick up in recent weeks. The secondary is solidifying. And that's not even mentioning their biggest asset, head coach John Harbaugh. The amount of winning he's done since taking over the Niners is damn near unprecedented. You just never know what he's going to pull out of his hat. Oh, and he's owned Green Bay.

As for the Packers, they're still pinching themselves after last week's shocking last-minute win over the rival Chicago Bears. As it stands now, they're 8-7-1, the fourth seed in the playoffs, hosting a 12-4 team that only a year ago was competing for a Super Bowl ring.

But, Green Bay has a little history on their side here. Every season, we see a home underdog in the playoffs pull one of these games out. The Packers, for everything they aren't defensively, are likely a lot better than their record when a certain somebody is taking the snaps. That certain somebody now has a game under his belt after missing the previous seven weeks with a broken collarbone. That certain somebody has already made a Wild Card run to a Super Bowl victory.

That certain somebody is, of course, quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Basically the second guy on the Hall of Fame waiting list right now behind Tom Brady. Eliminator of weaknesses. Destroyer of defenses. Superstar in every sense of the word. (And all of this from a Bears fan.)

With Rodgers back in the Green Bay lineup, you can throw everything else out the window. Yes, rookie runner Eddie Lacy has been fantastic this year for the Pack. But this game is coming down to two people and which one imposes their will most effectively. This is between Harbaugh and Rodgers.

We'll certainly hear a lot about the brutal cold throughout the game, but I don't think that slows either of these two gunslingers. Rodgers will want to hit San Francisco with quick passes, up-tempo offense and shotgun runs to Lacy while putting together sustained drives and wearing out the defense. Harbaugh will try to keep a questionable Packers defense off balance with his trademark quick-hitting powers, traps and counters with both Gore and Kaeperkick.

Rodgers will want to get top target Jordy Nelson in space one-on-one for big gains and opportunities for Nelson to run after the catch. Harbaugh will do his best to manage the same for Davis, Crabtree and veteran Anquan Boldin.

These are two intense leaders who approach the game in much the same way. The only problem for Rodgers is that he's got no say in what Packers do on defense to slow down the multiple 49ers attack, resigned to his thoughts on the sideline when the offense isn't out there. Harbaugh? He touches it all.

And that's the basis for my picks in this one. I'm excited to hopefully see another instant classic, as we've been spoiled by great games to start this year's playoffs. We're going to be witnessing football at its core in Green Bay today. It's going to be a heavyweight slugfest between two of the best we've ever seen at their respective jobs. And it's going to be freezing cold! This will be a win-win-win for NFL fans this afternoon.

As for the picks, I've got Harbaugh and the Niners both winning and covering the three today. I just think, aside from the overall talent gap, Harbaugh's schemes on both sides of the ball will be too much for Rodgers and the Pack to overcome.

One thing's for sure, regardless of outcome: I don't think anyone wants to play either of these teams anytime soon. These are dangerous playoff teams.

San Francisco to win and to cover (-3).

PLAYOFF PICKS
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 2-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 3-0

careeryearblog@gmail.com

nfl: wild card weekend picks: chargers-bengals

San Diego at Cincinnati (Bengals (-7))

After a wild pair of games on Saturday, these Sunday games have a lot to live up to. The matchups are ripe to deliver yet another crazy day on Wild Card Weekend. Let's get to them, starting with our 12pm CT showdown between two teams who aren't getting much love in the press as the playoffs get going.

Even the NFL did its best to bury the matchup, slotting it in the unenviable early Sunday spot, sandwiched between the game-of-the-week-type matchup Saturday night and the most primetime offering Sunday will provide later this afternoon.

But this is still an intriguing game from a few different angles. For starters, this Chargers team is a relative conundrum in and of itself. They've beaten Denver in Denver, the only such team to do so. They've also lost to the Raiders. It's just tough to know which Chargers team is going to show up.

Likewise on the home sideline. The Bengals knocked off the Patriots and Colts this year handily, but also lost stinkers to the Browns and Dolphins. They score a lot of points when they're at home, and their defense is one of the best units in the league. The questions here surface more on the offensive end; are we going to see the team that posted 34-plus points over their last three home contests? Or the one that posted just 30 combined earlier in the year over a 2-game stretch?

The only Bengal who can answer that question is quarterback Andy Dalton, who's been both maligned and celebrated in his time at the helm of coach Marv Lewis's offense. He's led his team to the playoffs each year he's been a pro, but he's yet to land that elusive first playoff win. He's never quite had a matchup like this one, however. Typically, it's been Dalton's teams that were big underdogs against a superior opponent in the playoffs. This time, that script is flipped, and Dalton might be able to put those questions off for another week. The reason? He's going to get a lot of help today.

What the Bengals have been able to do under Lewis and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is build a very balanced club, one with the ability to cover up its holes with outstanding play in other facets of the game. When Dalton's struggling in the passing game, they can turn to the ground with thunder-and-lightning backfield combo Benjarvis Green-Ellis and Gio Bernard. When nothing's working on offense, it's been the defense that's been able to pick up the slack, both in terms of field position and on the scoreboard, tallying six touchdowns on interception or fumble returns.

The bottom line: Cincinnati is a quietly dangerous team, regardless of who's making the plays.

The Chargers? Not so much. They've been among the worst defensive units in the league all season long. Philip Rivers, whose legend grows with each bolo-clad interview, has been a great comeback tale this season, leading the league in completion percentage and leading his team to big, unexpected wins.

Rookie head coach Mike McCoy, for all his clock management follies, has done a great job in turning this team around. If you told me at this point last year that the Chargers were just 12 months from a possible playoff win, I'd have checked you into the nearest insane asylum.

But it hasn't been all Rivers this year. A big piece of the Chargers' success on offense this year has been the revitalization of the running game under McCoy. Former first-rounder Ryan Mathews has been a revelation in 2013, playing in 15 games and churning out 1,255 yards on the ground on 285 carries, both easily career highs. He's had some help from diminutive running mate Danny Woodhead as well, who has tacked on another 1,000 total yards to the San Diego offense, more than half of which has come through the air. Shoot, when you add the two together, you've got the most effective backfield combo in the league. By far.

It's been a nice season for both teams thus far. The Bengals expected to be here, hosting their first playoff game of the Dalton era with a chance at rising to the occasion and advancing past the Wild Card Round.

The Chargers have already surpassed expectations for McCoy's first season. Regardless of what happens today, you've got to believe anyone with any stake in the Charger organization has already chalked 2013 up as a success.

As for the game, it's going to come down to the two things teams must do in order to advance in the playoffs: hang on to the football, and cram it down your opponent's throat.

If the Bengals' backfield duo can take enough pressure off Dalton and keep the Charger defense guessing, this game should go their way handily.

But if the Chargers get off to a fast start and are able to lean on their two very productive rushers, the Bengals could find themselves having to one-dementionally come back from a deficit on the right arm of Dalton.

What's the more likely outcome? I see Cincinnati controlling this one, both with their ground game and that top-5 defense. They'll be able to stuff Mathews between the tackles and use athletic linebackers to stick on Woodhead in the flats. Their defensive line, even without all-world tackle Geno Atkins, will give Rivers fits in the backfield, forcing him into long-yardage situations and disrupting his timing on crossing routes.

Weather and circumstance make me think this will be a close contest, but it just seems to me that the Chargers have already accomplished what they'd set out to do this year.

The Bengals? They're just getting started.

Bengals to win, Chargers to cover (-7).


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Saturday, January 4, 2014

nfl: wild card weekend picks: saints-eagles


New Orleans at Philadelphia (Eagles (-3))

Boy, I'm excited for this one. Big potential for lots of offense.

For some reason, however, I have a feeling tonight's matchup is going to feature more defense than cable television and talking heads everywhere would have you think. Typically, playoff games are cold, grind-it-out slugfests. Lots of running, lots of play clock spent reading defenses, lots of big hits, more lenient officiating. All these things lend to a 21-17, 17-13 kind of game.

These two teams, for all of their firepower throughout the regular season, are already trending toward this type of play, as is. The Eagles are the best rushing team in the NFL, and will want to try to run at all costs tonight. The Saints' Pierre Thomas is having himself a second career year of sorts, piling up 147 carries and over 1,000 total yards, almost identical to his best season in 2009. Both teams feature improving defenses.

But the biggest reason I think so is because of all the prognostication I'm hearing. Whenever the public perception is a near-concensus, regardless of direction, it's usually wrong. In this case, it's basically universally thought that tonight's game will be a shootout, featuring all of the offensive talent and firepower we're used to from these two franchises.

And it's easy to see why. Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are all mega-stars in the league. None play defense. That's usually a recipe for high-scoring games.

But for some reason, this one seems like a bit of a sucker bet. Chip Kelly and Sean Payton are both wizards in their own right, and I've got a feeling they'll be wanting to play the ball control game on this frigid night. History, defense, and the weather will feature prominently in this matchup, and its outcome will once again evade popular opinion.

I like New Orleans tonight in an upset, to not just cover the three but to win outright. Every year we've got a road underdog hail victorious, it seems. Every playoff game is tough; this will be no different. And in a battle of defenses, it'll be the better quarterback who prevails. Brees is hungry, and the Saints are off the radar.

But they won't be for long.

Saints to win and cover (+3).

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nfl: wild card weekend picks: chiefs-colts

Well, we've made it. After 17 weeks of insanity in the NFL, the field has been whittled down to twelve, each earning their 18th week in their own unique way.

Let's start with format. Since this is my first picks post, I'd like to give you an outline of what to expect.


  • I'm going to make two picks for each game: the team to win, and my pick against the spread. Since, you know, winning means something different to everyone.
  • I'll also jot down some quick notes on each team and my reasoning for the way I'm leaning. If there is a stat that stands out, I'll mention it or link to it here.
So that's about it. Pretty simple, no? Ok, let's get to it, starting with Saturday's first matchup.

Kansas City at Indianapolis (pick 'em)

The 3:30pm game features a rematch of a contest we saw in Week 16 between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs. That was a game dominated by the Colts in just about every facet of the game. They forced six Chief fumbles, scored touchdowns on plays of 30- and 50-plus yards, and generally controlled the game from the opening kick.

But that was a game played amid some odd circumstances, especially for Kansas City and head coach Andy Reid. For starters, the Chiefs were 11-3 at that point and, barring more than a few miracles, were already locked into the 5-seed in the playoffs. Subsequently, Indianapolis had all but sealed the 4-seed by virtue of winning the AFC South but with a lesser record than each of the division champs ahead of them. So, in essence, this rematch was all but on the schedule before that game even kicked off.

For Reid and the Chiefs, it's safe to say they didn't want to tip their hand in terms of how they were planning to attack the Colts in a much more meaningful game two weeks down the road. The offense, which had been averaging nearly 42 points per game in the four contests leading up to that Colts matchup, was held to just seven that afternoon. To say they were vanilla would be an understatement.

Jamal Charles, every bit the MVP candidate Peyton Manning is, touched the ball just 18 times. Granted, he gained 144 yards on those 18 touches because, well, he's Jamal Charles, but those touches came mostly on straight forward handoffs or dump offs from a flustered Alex Smith.

This was a bit of a trend even before the Colts matchup, as Charles carried the ball only eight times in Week 15 against the Raiders. Yes, he still managed to score five touchdowns in that game, but again, this was likely due to his being Jamal Charles than any special scheme Reid was deploying to fool defenses. Charles then sat out the final week of the season against the Chargers.

Needless to say, I suspect we're in for a much heavier dose of Charles today if the Chiefs are going to try and manage the clock and keep opposing quarterback Andrew Luck on the sidelines. And a heavy dose of Charles, for essentially his entire career going back to his track star days at Texas, has meant big problems for defenses trying to corral him.

For Indianapolis, their iteration of playing possum in that Week 16 matchup looked more like a training camp session than anything else. They made a concerted effort to run the ball right at an ailing Chiefs defense, leading to a 79-yard effort from backup running back Donald Brown to complement Trent Richardson's usual plodding.

When they did turn to the air, Luck was able to sit in the pocket and comfortably find receivers for big conversions throughout the game. His uniform stayed clean, which is something the equipment staff isn't used to from a guy who has taken the most hits at his position in the league over the past two years.

All told, the Colts made the Week 16 win look pretty easy, and the Chiefs didn't put up much of a fuss.

Today will be different, however. Obviously, each team has a lot more to play for this time around. And each team should throw the kitchen sink at the other with hopes of clawing their way to Week 19.

For the Chiefs, this means deploying Charles in a variety of sets the Colts didn't see two weeks ago. Expect for him to line up all over the offensive formation, including split wide and in the slot in multiple wide-receiver sets as Reid tries to exploit linebackers and safeties in coverage.

I suspect that we will also see a little more sophistication in the passing game for Smith. Dwayne Bowe and the Chief tight ends were all held in check in Week 16, while Smith was constantly harassed in the backfield by Colt pass-rush extraordinaire Robert Mathis. Watch for Kansas City to hit Indy with screens, draws and chips from backs and tight ends early in an effort to slow Mathis and company in their pursuit of Smith.

In terms of Indianapolis, look no further than Luck, an appropriate moniker for a QB who's lead his team to an astonishing 14-2 record in one-score games in his brief career. No doubt he's had help in doing this from an improving defense and running game, but for all intents and purposes, Luck's got this team squarely on his back. The guy just comes up with big play after big play, regardless of who's around him.

Whether he's scrambling for a first down or just extending a play long enough to find an open guy, Luck's ability to improvise has been nothing short of remarkable. His instincts are impeccable, his pocket presence resembling a former Colt QB whom he never even had the chance to study under.

To me, this game starts and stops with Luck. If he's able to break contain, avoid negative plays and hang onto the football, the Colts are just damn tough to beat. Doesn't seem to matter how well opposing offenses are playing, he just makes the plays he needs to in order to give himself and his team a shot at the end. And those shots usually find their target.

For Kansas City to have a shot at bringing home the city's first playoff win in any sport since 1994, they're going to need to get to Luck early and often. But, perhaps most importantly, they'll just need to limit him on the ground when he is able to break free. If Luck is able to move the chains with both his arm and legs, this will be a tough hill to climb.

The Chiefs will also need the help of a special teams unit that's been worth much more than the four touchdowns they've scored on returns this seasons. If they're going to have a chance to win, they'll need to continue to provide the offense with great field position.

When it comes down to it, both my picks are this same in this one. I just think Luck and the Colts are going to be too tough at home for the feel-good Chiefs this afternoon.

Colts to win and cover (pick 'em).

Thursday, January 2, 2014

matt from new york: (big) moneyball


BY: MATT FROM NEW YORK

Over the past two decades, there have been three constants in an ever-changing world: Taxes are increasing, business is becoming more global, and the New York Yankees, for the most part, have been atop the American League East standings when the leaves start falling.

That is, until this past season, when the Yankees, with their $230 million payroll and aging roster, failed to make the postseason, languishing in 4th place in the American League East come October.

The Yankees are now entering an offseason with uncertainties they haven’t faced since 1995. Exit Sandman and Andy Pettite. Enter questions about Derek Jeter and his nearly 40-year old shattered leg; about Alex Rodriguez, who has spent more time in his attorney’s office this winter than John Gotti Jr., and his future in the game, much less with the team; about how they can replace departed second baseman Robinson Cano's production.

These are major holes, expensive issues cropping up at a time when Yankee brass is attempting to stay under the $189 million league luxury tax mandate to avoid furthering penalties that have plagued them over the past 12 years.

So, those are the facts. Now, what should the Yankees' game plan be this Hot Stove season? Spend more!

Cano withstanding, the Yankees have already spent roughly $323 million on the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Matt Thorton, Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson via free agency, while retaining the services of mainstays Derek Jeter and Hiroki Kuroda. 

And they still aren’t finished as they are leading contenders for recently posted Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka, who expects to clear well over $100 million over the life of his contract, not to mention the $20 million it will take just to start negotiations.

All of the these guys are solid ballplayers, but, aside from Brian McCann (5 years $85 million), all seem to be gross overpays for a team attempting to tighten their financial belts over the coming years. So why are the Yankees diving head first into the money pit this offseason? To make more of it!

After opening the new Yankee Stadium in 2009, ticket sales have never been so important into securing the financial future of the Yankees. Take this for example: According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2010, just one year after winning their 26th World Series, the Yankees had a club record of $384 million in ticket sales. But that number plummeted each year after, decreasing to $377 million in 2011 and $353 million in 2012.  Perhaps this is natural regression coming off a world title, but it likely pointed to things to come.

In 2013 the Yanks were noticeably short on star power, featuring only Cano and waiver fodder for the better part of the year. Not only did it hurt them in the standings, but it hurt the Yankees where their Old Boss would've felt it most: right in the pocketbook. Last year's iteration totaled only $295 million in ticket sales, a stark 23% decrease from that record 2010 season.

Now, of all of those seasons, 2013 was the only one in which the Yankees didn’t advance to the postseason, which is where a bulk of their money is made through ticket sales. In 2011 and 2012, their postseason games accounted for $59 million and $58 million, respectively. Suffice to say, the Yankees' making the postseason makes or breaks a year both on the field and at the bank.

So when the Yankees feel they are a player or two away from getting back to October baseball, it makes both baseball and financial sense for them to overpay players such as Jacoby Ellsbury to put them over the top and get them back into the ‘moneyball rounds.’ And this isn't Billy Beane's moneyball, either.

The issue for the Yankees is not overpaying a prime free agent, but rather failing to sign one they need  to get back to the playoffs and make a deep run. As they say, you must pay to play, and that has never been more evident than it is with this current Yankee team.

Contact the writer at careeryearblog@gmail.com