Sunday, January 5, 2014

nfl: wild card weekend picks: chargers-bengals

San Diego at Cincinnati (Bengals (-7))

After a wild pair of games on Saturday, these Sunday games have a lot to live up to. The matchups are ripe to deliver yet another crazy day on Wild Card Weekend. Let's get to them, starting with our 12pm CT showdown between two teams who aren't getting much love in the press as the playoffs get going.

Even the NFL did its best to bury the matchup, slotting it in the unenviable early Sunday spot, sandwiched between the game-of-the-week-type matchup Saturday night and the most primetime offering Sunday will provide later this afternoon.

But this is still an intriguing game from a few different angles. For starters, this Chargers team is a relative conundrum in and of itself. They've beaten Denver in Denver, the only such team to do so. They've also lost to the Raiders. It's just tough to know which Chargers team is going to show up.

Likewise on the home sideline. The Bengals knocked off the Patriots and Colts this year handily, but also lost stinkers to the Browns and Dolphins. They score a lot of points when they're at home, and their defense is one of the best units in the league. The questions here surface more on the offensive end; are we going to see the team that posted 34-plus points over their last three home contests? Or the one that posted just 30 combined earlier in the year over a 2-game stretch?

The only Bengal who can answer that question is quarterback Andy Dalton, who's been both maligned and celebrated in his time at the helm of coach Marv Lewis's offense. He's led his team to the playoffs each year he's been a pro, but he's yet to land that elusive first playoff win. He's never quite had a matchup like this one, however. Typically, it's been Dalton's teams that were big underdogs against a superior opponent in the playoffs. This time, that script is flipped, and Dalton might be able to put those questions off for another week. The reason? He's going to get a lot of help today.

What the Bengals have been able to do under Lewis and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is build a very balanced club, one with the ability to cover up its holes with outstanding play in other facets of the game. When Dalton's struggling in the passing game, they can turn to the ground with thunder-and-lightning backfield combo Benjarvis Green-Ellis and Gio Bernard. When nothing's working on offense, it's been the defense that's been able to pick up the slack, both in terms of field position and on the scoreboard, tallying six touchdowns on interception or fumble returns.

The bottom line: Cincinnati is a quietly dangerous team, regardless of who's making the plays.

The Chargers? Not so much. They've been among the worst defensive units in the league all season long. Philip Rivers, whose legend grows with each bolo-clad interview, has been a great comeback tale this season, leading the league in completion percentage and leading his team to big, unexpected wins.

Rookie head coach Mike McCoy, for all his clock management follies, has done a great job in turning this team around. If you told me at this point last year that the Chargers were just 12 months from a possible playoff win, I'd have checked you into the nearest insane asylum.

But it hasn't been all Rivers this year. A big piece of the Chargers' success on offense this year has been the revitalization of the running game under McCoy. Former first-rounder Ryan Mathews has been a revelation in 2013, playing in 15 games and churning out 1,255 yards on the ground on 285 carries, both easily career highs. He's had some help from diminutive running mate Danny Woodhead as well, who has tacked on another 1,000 total yards to the San Diego offense, more than half of which has come through the air. Shoot, when you add the two together, you've got the most effective backfield combo in the league. By far.

It's been a nice season for both teams thus far. The Bengals expected to be here, hosting their first playoff game of the Dalton era with a chance at rising to the occasion and advancing past the Wild Card Round.

The Chargers have already surpassed expectations for McCoy's first season. Regardless of what happens today, you've got to believe anyone with any stake in the Charger organization has already chalked 2013 up as a success.

As for the game, it's going to come down to the two things teams must do in order to advance in the playoffs: hang on to the football, and cram it down your opponent's throat.

If the Bengals' backfield duo can take enough pressure off Dalton and keep the Charger defense guessing, this game should go their way handily.

But if the Chargers get off to a fast start and are able to lean on their two very productive rushers, the Bengals could find themselves having to one-dementionally come back from a deficit on the right arm of Dalton.

What's the more likely outcome? I see Cincinnati controlling this one, both with their ground game and that top-5 defense. They'll be able to stuff Mathews between the tackles and use athletic linebackers to stick on Woodhead in the flats. Their defensive line, even without all-world tackle Geno Atkins, will give Rivers fits in the backfield, forcing him into long-yardage situations and disrupting his timing on crossing routes.

Weather and circumstance make me think this will be a close contest, but it just seems to me that the Chargers have already accomplished what they'd set out to do this year.

The Bengals? They're just getting started.

Bengals to win, Chargers to cover (-7).


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