Let's start with format. Since this is my first picks post, I'd like to give you an outline of what to expect.
- I'm going to make two picks for each game: the team to win, and my pick against the spread. Since, you know, winning means something different to everyone.
- I'll also jot down some quick notes on each team and my reasoning for the way I'm leaning. If there is a stat that stands out, I'll mention it or link to it here.
So that's about it. Pretty simple, no? Ok, let's get to it, starting with Saturday's first matchup.
Kansas City at Indianapolis (pick 'em)
The 3:30pm game features a rematch of a contest we saw in Week 16 between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs. That was a game dominated by the Colts in just about every facet of the game. They forced six Chief fumbles, scored touchdowns on plays of 30- and 50-plus yards, and generally controlled the game from the opening kick.
But that was a game played amid some odd circumstances, especially for Kansas City and head coach Andy Reid. For starters, the Chiefs were 11-3 at that point and, barring more than a few miracles, were already locked into the 5-seed in the playoffs. Subsequently, Indianapolis had all but sealed the 4-seed by virtue of winning the AFC South but with a lesser record than each of the division champs ahead of them. So, in essence, this rematch was all but on the schedule before that game even kicked off.
For Reid and the Chiefs, it's safe to say they didn't want to tip their hand in terms of how they were planning to attack the Colts in a much more meaningful game two weeks down the road. The offense, which had been averaging nearly 42 points per game in the four contests leading up to that Colts matchup, was held to just seven that afternoon. To say they were vanilla would be an understatement.
Jamal Charles, every bit the MVP candidate Peyton Manning is, touched the ball just 18 times. Granted, he gained 144 yards on those 18 touches because, well, he's Jamal Charles, but those touches came mostly on straight forward handoffs or dump offs from a flustered Alex Smith.
This was a bit of a trend even before the Colts matchup, as Charles carried the ball only eight times in Week 15 against the Raiders. Yes, he still managed to score five touchdowns in that game, but again, this was likely due to his being Jamal Charles than any special scheme Reid was deploying to fool defenses. Charles then sat out the final week of the season against the Chargers.
Needless to say, I suspect we're in for a much heavier dose of Charles today if the Chiefs are going to try and manage the clock and keep opposing quarterback Andrew Luck on the sidelines. And a heavy dose of Charles, for essentially his entire career going back to his track star days at Texas, has meant big problems for defenses trying to corral him.
For Indianapolis, their iteration of playing possum in that Week 16 matchup looked more like a training camp session than anything else. They made a concerted effort to run the ball right at an ailing Chiefs defense, leading to a 79-yard effort from backup running back Donald Brown to complement Trent Richardson's usual plodding.
When they did turn to the air, Luck was able to sit in the pocket and comfortably find receivers for big conversions throughout the game. His uniform stayed clean, which is something the equipment staff isn't used to from a guy who has taken the most hits at his position in the league over the past two years.
All told, the Colts made the Week 16 win look pretty easy, and the Chiefs didn't put up much of a fuss.
Today will be different, however. Obviously, each team has a lot more to play for this time around. And each team should throw the kitchen sink at the other with hopes of clawing their way to Week 19.
For the Chiefs, this means deploying Charles in a variety of sets the Colts didn't see two weeks ago. Expect for him to line up all over the offensive formation, including split wide and in the slot in multiple wide-receiver sets as Reid tries to exploit linebackers and safeties in coverage.
I suspect that we will also see a little more sophistication in the passing game for Smith. Dwayne Bowe and the Chief tight ends were all held in check in Week 16, while Smith was constantly harassed in the backfield by Colt pass-rush extraordinaire Robert Mathis. Watch for Kansas City to hit Indy with screens, draws and chips from backs and tight ends early in an effort to slow Mathis and company in their pursuit of Smith.
In terms of Indianapolis, look no further than Luck, an appropriate moniker for a QB who's lead his team to an astonishing 14-2 record in one-score games in his brief career. No doubt he's had help in doing this from an improving defense and running game, but for all intents and purposes, Luck's got this team squarely on his back. The guy just comes up with big play after big play, regardless of who's around him.
Whether he's scrambling for a first down or just extending a play long enough to find an open guy, Luck's ability to improvise has been nothing short of remarkable. His instincts are impeccable, his pocket presence resembling a former Colt QB whom he never even had the chance to study under.
To me, this game starts and stops with Luck. If he's able to break contain, avoid negative plays and hang onto the football, the Colts are just damn tough to beat. Doesn't seem to matter how well opposing offenses are playing, he just makes the plays he needs to in order to give himself and his team a shot at the end. And those shots usually find their target.
For Kansas City to have a shot at bringing home the city's first playoff win in any sport since 1994, they're going to need to get to Luck early and often. But, perhaps most importantly, they'll just need to limit him on the ground when he is able to break free. If Luck is able to move the chains with both his arm and legs, this will be a tough hill to climb.
The Chiefs will also need the help of a special teams unit that's been worth much more than the four touchdowns they've scored on returns this seasons. If they're going to have a chance to win, they'll need to continue to provide the offense with great field position.
When it comes down to it, both my picks are this same in this one. I just think Luck and the Colts are going to be too tough at home for the feel-good Chiefs this afternoon.
Colts to win and cover (pick 'em).
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