New Orleans at Seattle (Seahawks (-7.5))
Welcome back for another installment of our NFL playoff picks. This weekend we've got another exciting slate on tap as teams vie for the opportunity to advance to their respective conference's championship games.
The first game of the weekend doesn't require too much digging, in my opinion. These teams played just six short weeks ago in Seattle, and that game was not close. Not in yards, not in turnovers, not in points. The Seahawks simply took the wind out of the Saints' sails halfway through the first quarter and never turned back, polishing off a 34-7 win in front of a mostly-sleeping Monday night audience.
This time around, the circumstances really aren't much different. The game is in Seattle, a place that's been widely recognized as providing the largest home field advantage in the league due to the 12th Man and the unique weather conditions. It was a prime time game, one of the biggest matchups of the regular season for both teams. And both squads were relatively healthy heading into it.
Now, Seattle is coming off a Wild Card Weekend in which they did not participate, and they're as healthy as they've been all season long, welcoming back game-breaking wide receiver Percy Harvin with an unlimited snap count and return duties.
During that Week 13 matchup with the Saints, the 'Hawks were able to hold Drew Brees and that explosive New Orleans passing attack to just 147 yards while piling up their usual interceptions and pass deflections all over the field. This defense was constructed with these exact matchups in mind. Combining long, lanky defensive backs with athletic pass rushers on the outside, Seattle is essentially a passing offense's worst nightmare.
And, although they were able to power their way to an opening round victory in Philadelphia last weekend, the Saints are still very much a passing offense. Brees and head coach Sean Payton are famous for their multiple attack, combining deadly accurate quarterback play with brilliant play design to spread defenses out and take advantage of mismatches in coverage.
This is also an offense loaded with playmakers on the outside, using seam-running stalwarts Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston with speedsters Robert Meachem and Kenny Stills in tandem to torture under-matched defenses. If you're not able to play man-to-man coverage against Brees while forcing him to move around in the pocket, you're going to be in for a very long day.
But last week Payton did something we're not used to seeing from the pass-happy guru: run the football. They beat the Eagles at their own game this past Saturday, rushing 36 times at 5.1 yards per carry. Led by former first-round pick (post-hype fantasy sleeper alert!) Mark Ingram, who carried 18 times for 97 yards and a touchdown, the Saints controlled the clock and kept Chip Kelly's explosive offense on the sidelines en route to a 26-24 victory.
Popular opinion around the talk-show circuit would have you think that it would be in the Saints' best interest for them to employ a similar gameplan this afternoon. After all, when the Seahawks did look vulnerable this year (which wasn't much, but stay with me here), it was when teams ran the ball right at them and controlled the game on the ground.
I'm of a different opinion, however. I believe for the Saints to have a chance to advance to the NFC title game, they're going to have to win the way we're used to seeing them win with Payton and Brees at the helm. They're going to have to win this game through the air, utilizing the threat of their newly established run game to keep the Seahawk pass rush at bay with play-action passes and added protection for Brees as he scans the defense for mismatches.
The Seahawks are going to try to play man-to-man defense on the outside with their big defensive backs. They're going to rush the passer and try to fluster Brees, forcing him into check-downs and poor decisions that lead to turnovers. This has been their blueprint dating back to the start of last year, and there's really been no reason to shift their philosophy. They're the toughest team to beat at home in the league, and it all starts with that tenacious pass defense.
On offense, Seattle will employ a bruising combination of Marshawn Lynch at the point of attack and Russell Wilson on the edges. If the Saints aren't able to keep Wilson in the pocket, their odds of winning will go from slim to none.
In terms of a pick in this game, it's all going to come down to New Orleans and their ability to dictate things on offense. The Seahawks aren't built to play from behind, and the Saints will need to give them a taste of their own medicine and get out to a quick start, likely through the air. If they can pop Seattle in the mouth with a couple of big pass plays early, Payton will be able to lean on their newfound ground game to chew up the clock and keep Wilson on the sideline.
But, as is usually the case in Seattle, they'll be battling more than just the league's top pass defense and most boisterous crowd. They'll need to throw effectively through a light rain that's expected to fall throughout the contest.
The chips appear to be stacked a little too heavily against the Saints and their attempt to play spoiler for a second straight week on the road. I do see this being a close contest, but Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are just too tough at home, especially when you add in the elements. Seattle wins this one to advance to the NFC title game next week.
Seattle wins, New Orleans covers (+7.5).
PLAYOFF PICKS
WIN/LOSS RECORD: 3-1
AGAINST THE SPREAD: 3-0-1
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