New Orleans at Philadelphia (Eagles (-3))
Boy, I'm excited for this one. Big potential for lots of offense.
For some reason, however, I have a feeling tonight's matchup is going to feature more defense than cable television and talking heads everywhere would have you think. Typically, playoff games are cold, grind-it-out slugfests. Lots of running, lots of play clock spent reading defenses, lots of big hits, more lenient officiating. All these things lend to a 21-17, 17-13 kind of game.
These two teams, for all of their firepower throughout the regular season, are already trending toward this type of play, as is. The Eagles are the best rushing team in the NFL, and will want to try to run at all costs tonight. The Saints' Pierre Thomas is having himself a second career year of sorts, piling up 147 carries and over 1,000 total yards, almost identical to his best season in 2009. Both teams feature improving defenses.
But the biggest reason I think so is because of all the prognostication I'm hearing. Whenever the public perception is a near-concensus, regardless of direction, it's usually wrong. In this case, it's basically universally thought that tonight's game will be a shootout, featuring all of the offensive talent and firepower we're used to from these two franchises.
And it's easy to see why. Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are all mega-stars in the league. None play defense. That's usually a recipe for high-scoring games.
But for some reason, this one seems like a bit of a sucker bet. Chip Kelly and Sean Payton are both wizards in their own right, and I've got a feeling they'll be wanting to play the ball control game on this frigid night. History, defense, and the weather will feature prominently in this matchup, and its outcome will once again evade popular opinion.
I like New Orleans tonight in an upset, to not just cover the three but to win outright. Every year we've got a road underdog hail victorious, it seems. Every playoff game is tough; this will be no different. And in a battle of defenses, it'll be the better quarterback who prevails. Brees is hungry, and the Saints are off the radar.
But they won't be for long.
Saints to win and cover (+3).
careeryearblog@gmail.com
For some reason, however, I have a feeling tonight's matchup is going to feature more defense than cable television and talking heads everywhere would have you think. Typically, playoff games are cold, grind-it-out slugfests. Lots of running, lots of play clock spent reading defenses, lots of big hits, more lenient officiating. All these things lend to a 21-17, 17-13 kind of game.
These two teams, for all of their firepower throughout the regular season, are already trending toward this type of play, as is. The Eagles are the best rushing team in the NFL, and will want to try to run at all costs tonight. The Saints' Pierre Thomas is having himself a second career year of sorts, piling up 147 carries and over 1,000 total yards, almost identical to his best season in 2009. Both teams feature improving defenses.
But the biggest reason I think so is because of all the prognostication I'm hearing. Whenever the public perception is a near-concensus, regardless of direction, it's usually wrong. In this case, it's basically universally thought that tonight's game will be a shootout, featuring all of the offensive talent and firepower we're used to from these two franchises.
And it's easy to see why. Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are all mega-stars in the league. None play defense. That's usually a recipe for high-scoring games.
But for some reason, this one seems like a bit of a sucker bet. Chip Kelly and Sean Payton are both wizards in their own right, and I've got a feeling they'll be wanting to play the ball control game on this frigid night. History, defense, and the weather will feature prominently in this matchup, and its outcome will once again evade popular opinion.
I like New Orleans tonight in an upset, to not just cover the three but to win outright. Every year we've got a road underdog hail victorious, it seems. Every playoff game is tough; this will be no different. And in a battle of defenses, it'll be the better quarterback who prevails. Brees is hungry, and the Saints are off the radar.
But they won't be for long.
Saints to win and cover (+3).
careeryearblog@gmail.com
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