matt from new york: (big) moneyball

BY: MATT FROM NEW YORK

Over the past two decades, there have been three constants in an ever-changing world: Taxes are increasing, business is becoming more global, and the New York Yankees, for the most part, have been atop the American League East standings when the leaves start falling.

That is, until this past season, when the Yankees, with their $230 million payroll and aging roster, failed to make the postseason, languishing in 4^th place in the American League East come October.

The Yankees are now entering an offseason with uncertainties they haven’t faced since 1995. Exit Sandman and Andy Pettite. Enter questions about Derek Jeter and his nearly 40-year old shattered leg; about Alex Rodriguez, who has spent more time in his attorney’s office this winter than John Gotti Jr., and his future in the game, much less with the team; about how they can replace departed second baseman Robinson Cano's production.

These are major holes, expensive issues cropping up at a time when Yankee brass is attempting to stay under the $189 million league luxury tax mandate to avoid furthering penalties that have plagued them over the past 12 years.

So, those are the facts. Now, what should the Yankees' game plan be this Hot Stove season? Spend more!

Cano withstanding, the Yankees have already spent roughly $323 million on the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Matt Thorton, Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson via free agency, while retaining the services of mainstays Derek Jeter and Hiroki Kuroda. 

And they still aren’t finished as they are leading contenders for recently posted Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka, who expects to clear well over $100 million over the life of his contract, not to mention the $20 million it will take just to start negotiations.

All of the these guys are solid ballplayers, but, aside from Brian McCann (5 years $85 million), all seem to be gross overpays for a team attempting to tighten their financial belts over the coming years. So why are the Yankees diving head first into the money pit this offseason? To make more of it!

After opening the new Yankee Stadium in 2009, ticket sales have never been so important into securing the financial future of the Yankees. Take this for example: According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2010, just one year after winning their 26^th World Series, the Yankees had a club record of $384 million in ticket sales. But that number plummeted each year after, decreasing to $377 million in 2011 and $353 million in 2012.  Perhaps this is natural regression coming off a world title, but it likely pointed to things to come.

In 2013 the Yanks were noticeably short on star power, featuring only Cano and waiver fodder for the better part of the year. Not only did it hurt them in the standings, but it hurt the Yankees where their Old Boss would've felt it most: right in the pocketbook. Last year's iteration totaled only $295 million in ticket sales, a stark 23% decrease from that record 2010 season.

Now, of all of those seasons, 2013 was the only one in which the Yankees didn’t advance to the postseason, which is where a bulk of their money is made through ticket sales. In 2011 and 2012, their postseason games accounted for $59 million and $58 million, respectively. Suffice to say, the Yankees' making the postseason makes or breaks a year both on the field and at the bank.

So when the Yankees feel they are a player or two away from getting back to October baseball, it makes both baseball and financial sense for them to overpay players such as Jacoby Ellsbury to put them over the top and get them back into the ‘moneyball rounds.’ And this isn't Billy Beane's moneyball, either.

The issue for the Yankees is not overpaying a prime free agent, but rather failing to sign one they need  to get back to the playoffs and make a deep run. As they say, you must pay to play, and that has never been more evident than it is with this current Yankee team.

Contact the writer at careeryearblog@gmail.com