Indianapolis at New England (Patriots (-7))
Taking a look at these two teams, the similarities are uncanny. Both have franchise quarterbacks, both rely heavily on who's-that-guy types at the skill positions, and both have had their fair share of struggles on defense throughout the 2013 season.
Now, I don't have as much to say about this matchup as, say, Bill Simmons, but I would like to share a couple things before I get to my pick.
First, this game is expected to be played in some inclement weather in the Boston area. Wind and heavy rains are expected throughout the contest. We're watching right now what those elements can do to a quarterback who's not used to playing in them. I just saw a stat right before halftime of the Saints-Seahawks game showing Drew Brees with three completions for 19 yards after nearly 30 minutes of football in the rain and driving winds of Seattle. Brees, as you know, is used to the temperature- and precipitation-controlled confines of the Superdome in New Orleans.
Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is also used to playing indoors, in Indianapolis, after playing his college ball in the relatively mild climes of the Pac-12. It will be very interesting to see how the weather affects Luck's otherworldly abilities tonight.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, played his college football at Michigan before joining the Pats in 2000. He's seen his fair share of poor elements, and he's been mostly successful. This, along with all of his experience in big games with head coach Bill Belichick, will play a starring role this evening.
Second, I'm not sure people are playing up the impact of last week's emotional win over the Kansas City Chiefs enough. They completed the second-biggest comeback in playoff history in that win, and did it in spectacular fashion. I don't have any stats or anything, but it just seems like more teams fall flat after performances like that than continue their inspired play. Just this past Monday we saw Auburn fail to pull another rabbit from their seemingly bottomless hat in the national championship game. Even though they played great and provided us with a phenomenal final act for the BCS, their number just seemed to be finally up against a superior opponent.
And that's what I think tonight's game is going to look like. Luck and the Colts have been on an incredible ride since he was drafted prior to last season. They've been almost unbeatable in close games. They've completed unreal comebacks time and time again. They've been super easy to root for. They've been a great story.
But tonight, in the wind and rain of Foxboro, the clock is going to strike midnight. The Pats, with all that Brady and Belichick have been through just this year alone, are looking like a sleeping giant right now. They're hitting on all cylinders, and the complete unknowns that have made up seemingly their entire roster this year are coming on strong just at the right time. That's the benefit of having essentially two head coaches. Belichick is a defensive wizard. Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are his near-equals on offense. They've had 18 weeks to coach up the young guys. And due to recent struggles in playoffs past, they're as hungry as ever.
Luck and the Colts are about to run headlong into the wood chipper in New England, and seven points aren't enough to save them.
New England to win and cover (-7).
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