But first, let's just get the official Career Year stance on Syndergaard's first pitch and all the fallout after the game out of the way. I don't mind the pitch. If the Royals went on to win it'd be nothing more than a footnote. It's a baseball play. As for the Royals' reaction after the game, it was a rather tired. So were Syndergaard's tough-guy remarks. My hope is this doesn't get anymore overblown than it already has and start affecting the Series negatively, be it getting into the heads of either team or the umpires. It's been a great Fall Classic thus far, let's keep it that way.
We all know by now that the Royals make contact and the Mets can pitch. The first game was a little bizarro version of both teams, with each seemingly playing the other's part until Alex Gordon's ninth-inning homer (the Series' biggest play so far). Game 2 was all Royals, showcasing their contact-hitting strength and knocking around Mets ace Jacob deGrom. Then last night was the Mets' time to show off their strengths. Syndergaard struck out six Royals and looked every bit the ace deGrom had been touted to be. The Mets got to Royals starter Yordano Ventura early and often, clouting a pair of 2-run home runs in the process.
So the Royals find themselves up 2-1 in the Series, yet seem to be on their heels a bit after the onslaught last night in Queens. They need a spark, and they need it in the batters' box. Now would be a great time to reverse the troubling trend of Lorenzo Cain in the World Series.
2015 was a career year (see what I did there??) for Cain across the board. He racked up more than 600 plate appearances for the first time as a pro, and slashed .307/.361/.477 on his way to his first All-Star game. He hit in the 3-hole all year long. He cracked 34 doubles, legged out 6 triples and swiped 28 bags in 34 tries. He finished with 6.6 Wins Above Replacement, ranking as MLB's 9th most valuable player during the regular season. And all the while playing top-notch defense in centerfield.
But, Cain hasn't been able to carry any momentum from his breakout regular season into October. In his 64 PAs this postseason, he's managed to hit .241/.344/.315 while changing his approach drastically from the look of it. His ISO is down nearly .100, from .171 during the regular season to a paltry .074 when it matters most. He's increased his walk rate dramatically, but not without adding a slight uptick in strikeout percentage. Even his BABIP has taken a major downward turn, from a sky-high .347 to .279.
And it's been even worse in the World Series, as Cain's limped to a .250/.348/.300 line while only tallying two extra-base hits in 46 PAs.
So, what's behind this? Let's see if we can find out. First place we'll look is at the opposition, as it seems just to the eye test that postseason pitchers have found a couple of holes in Cain's swing up in the zone and also on the outside part of the plate. Here's where Cain's success came from in the regular season (thanks, Fangraphs!):
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Up in the zone has been giving Cain fits all year, and it's tough to lay off those pitches, but that's a spot that's notoriously tough for right handers to get to. Cain would do well to just watch these go by once they're around the letters, regardless of ball/strike call.
But you see quite clearly that Cain loves to hit the ball down and away. Middle-out is where he finds his must success, with that trend even accounting for balls off the plate away. He likes to extend his hands and use the entire field, which makes him so tough to game plan for. His contact and hit profile personifies the Royals' best-known strength.
To get a complete look at what made Cain such a dominant regular season performer, though, we need to know where his career-high-by-far 56 extra base hits, including a (yep, you guessed it) career best 16 HRs, came from. Another heat map courtesy of Fangraphs takes a look at what made up his .171 ISO:
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While Cain is capable of spraying the ball all over the yard for base hits, the above shows he clearly likes to drive pitches middle-in. I know, I know- a right handed hitter who likes to pull for power, la de frickin' da. But this does show us a pretty complete picture of who Cain is as a hitter and what makes him so tough on opposing hurlers.
Let's take a look at how this compares to his playoffs performance. First, here's how has he been pitched in those 64 playoff games so far, thanks to the unbelievable Brooks Baseball:
(This is from the catcher's view, opposite of the above)
Pretty telling that opposing pitchers aren't challenging Cain inside much. Huge majority of pitches he's seen this postseason have been down and away, with most just off the plate. These are tough pitches for anyone not named Vlad Guerrero to get any real mustard behind, which goes a long way in explaining Cain's dearth of power this playoffs. He's been forced to take what opposing pitchers have been giving him, and he's been much more selective, explaining that walk rate. Down and away aren't pitches a righty swinger wants to take big hacks at, and can be frustrating to see over and over again.
Now, small sample sizes do apply here, but still the trend is troubling for Kansas City. They count on Cain for so much in order for this team to be successful on offense. In order for Lo to get back on track, he's going to need to stay patient, continue to look middle-in early and, perhaps most importantly, let the high ones go. With pitchers approaching him with such extreme caution to start each plate appearance, he can't give strikes away by swinging from his heels on pitches that are borderline high strikes. The good news is, even if Cain himself can't dictate how the opposition faces him, when he gets on he can still turn a walk or single into extra bases with his legs.
For the Royals to turn up the pressure and pull to within just one game of their first title in 30 years, they're going to have to hope regular season Lorenzo Cain makes an appearance on the big stage. For fans in Royal Blue, it would be a welcome reversal of a troubling trend.
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