Quick gut feelings breakdown I'll be watching closely tonight:
#2.) Can Cain and Hosmer provide the pop they did in last year's postseason? Lo has been on base a ton this postseason, but hasn't provided the electricity at the plate he did last year. He's been great in the field and on the basepaths, as one might expect, but the 'stay away' approach pitchers are taking with him has softened his thunderous bat a little. Don't get me wrong, I like hard grounders slashed through the 3.5 hole between second and first, but Cain has much more to offer this offense in terms of driving the ball to the gaps.
As for Hosmer, we've all heard about his impressive clutch hitting with runners on so far this playoffs. But, like Cain, most of those RBI are coming on sacrifices or well-placed groundball singles. He hasn't been able to get extended and drive the ball to left-center, which is when you know he's going well. He's been crucial in keeping the line moving, but he's yet to provide the big blows Royals fans have no doubt been expecting each time he's up. Haven't looked too far into it yet, but I do believe pitch selection has played into this. He's swinging at more balls out of the zone than I'm used to seeing, and he's taking more first-pitch strikes as well.
Let's hope the day off and more homer-friendly ballpark wake these guys up a bit.
#3.) Keep the Moose train rolling. As I said in my Game 2 preview, Moose has looked like the most comfortable and confident hitter in the Royals' lineup outside of Ben Zobrist. Maybe it's something about colder weather that allows Moose to quiet down, or maybe he's just another Royal who's better when the spotlight's brightest. Either way, let's hope he keeps this approach up, because when he's spraying the ball to all fields while flashing that pull power, he's tough to defend.
#4.) Can the Mets hit? We've already broken down the Royals' Game 3 starter and why his best pitch will be so important to their success tonight. But what hasn't been talked about much is this Mets lineup and whether or not they can deliver for the home club when it matters most. Look, this isn't a lineup that's going to inspire many oos and ahs, especially when you get to the bottom third, but they did lead the NL in homeruns and runs scored after the All-Star break, and you saw what's possible when just one guy gets ultra-hot in a series. So far in the World series, they've only scratched out 5 runs over 23 innings against a Royals pitching staff not exactly expected to be lock-down in the first 5 or so innings. So what's the deal? Simple- they need Cespedes, Duda and Murphy to get back to their patient, slugging ways. Too many off-balance swings, too many fastballs taken, too much jumpiness. I expect this Mets offense to be much more relaxed tonight after sleeping in their own beds and knowing just how important Game 3 is to their title hopes.
For Royals fans, this will come down to Ventura's ability to stay calm, stay within himself and establish the fastball.
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Friday, October 30, 2015
Thursday, October 29, 2015
What I'm Watching For - Game 3
I'm going to take a dive into a few things I'm watching for in tomorrow night's Game 3. Starting with:
1.) A Tale of Two "Ace"s - Yordano Ventura, KC's Game 3 starter and nominal ace for most of the season, is a rather odd pitcher. He's also rather straight forward. You see, Ventura- or Ace, as he's known in this household- throws heat. Like, Mets-level heat. He ranked 3rd this year in average velocity, behind only the Yankees' Nathan Eovaldi (whose elbow may wish he'd done things differently) and Ace's Game 3 opponent, Mets' starter Noah Syndergaard. And, as one might expect from a person who's been able to make a career out of lighting up the radar gun, he relies heavily on that freakish skill. And why not? The best fastball hitting offense in baseball shares a dugout with him. Opposing hitters are at a disadvantage the minute they walk into the park.
But, as is typical of most natural-born fireballers, Ace can have a hard time corralling that cannon of his. And when he does, he goes away from it. When he goes away from it, he typically ends up just going away himself. Banished to the clubhouse after a short, walk-riddled outing and left to watch the bullpen try to make good on his efforts. Whether it be control, hard-hit balls, a perceived small strike zone or run of the mill shit-talking, Ventura typically doesn't bounce back from adversity. And that's because he doesn't fight fire with his own variety.
The below graphic, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, shows Ventura's pitch mix in each of his 32 starts this year, including the postseason. As you can see, it's quite erratic:
Let's look at the obvious first. You can see the dramatic peaks and valleys in his fourseam usage clearly, and those peaks tend to lineup with wins while the valleys signal those outings when Ventura just didn't have it for one reason or another. He threw the pitch more than 45% of the time in 11 starts this year. The Royals won 8 of them. When he's feeling it with the old number 1, he's tough to beat. When he's not, he's not. This would be the rather straight forward bit I'd alluded to.
What's odd about Ventura is just about everything else you see in the graph. For one, take a look at his cutter usage. He essentially buried the pitch in May and only threw it again during a 2-start stretch in August against the Angels and Tigers. More on this a little later, but I have to imagine it's strange for a hurler to shelf a pitch for an entire season only to bring it back in the most high-leverage outings of the season.
Next, you'll notice a steady rise in his curveball usage. The curve is Ventura's put-away pitch, and it's as nasty as they come, inducing whiffs on an astounding 42.39% of swings against it. It's great to see Ventura gaining confidence in the curve, since it's really the yen to his fastball's yang, and also because he's essentially done away with a changeup that he'd been throwing about once every 5 pitches earlier on in the year.
In the postseason, he's added a couple wrinkles. You can see he's eschewed his fourseam cheddar for more sinkers (2-seamers) and cutters. Pretty savvy move by the 24-year old, if you ask me. The cut fastball, especially, should help to neutralize lefthanded hitters in the mold of Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda. This is a welcome adjustment, and likely has a lot to do with oft-overlooked pitching wizard Dave Eiland, who for so many years with the Yankees worked with some of the best cutter artists this generation has seen.
So maybe we can just throw out the book on Ventura as a fastball-first, power pitcher. With him reversing course in nearly every way in his three playoff starts, maybe the heater doesn't portend success. But, as with anything, we have to keep sample size in perspective. Three starts does not a trend make.
So I'll be watching Ace very closely to start out the game. I'll be paying close attention to the Mets' hitters and how they try to disrupt Ventura and flare his infamous temper. But most importantly, I'll be charting how often he's throwing his fastball, because if he's got it working and is able to hit that magic 45% number, the Royals should wind up one game closer to a World Championship when all's said and done.
careeryearblog@gmail.com
1.) A Tale of Two "Ace"s - Yordano Ventura, KC's Game 3 starter and nominal ace for most of the season, is a rather odd pitcher. He's also rather straight forward. You see, Ventura- or Ace, as he's known in this household- throws heat. Like, Mets-level heat. He ranked 3rd this year in average velocity, behind only the Yankees' Nathan Eovaldi (whose elbow may wish he'd done things differently) and Ace's Game 3 opponent, Mets' starter Noah Syndergaard. And, as one might expect from a person who's been able to make a career out of lighting up the radar gun, he relies heavily on that freakish skill. And why not? The best fastball hitting offense in baseball shares a dugout with him. Opposing hitters are at a disadvantage the minute they walk into the park.
But, as is typical of most natural-born fireballers, Ace can have a hard time corralling that cannon of his. And when he does, he goes away from it. When he goes away from it, he typically ends up just going away himself. Banished to the clubhouse after a short, walk-riddled outing and left to watch the bullpen try to make good on his efforts. Whether it be control, hard-hit balls, a perceived small strike zone or run of the mill shit-talking, Ventura typically doesn't bounce back from adversity. And that's because he doesn't fight fire with his own variety.
The below graphic, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, shows Ventura's pitch mix in each of his 32 starts this year, including the postseason. As you can see, it's quite erratic:
Let's look at the obvious first. You can see the dramatic peaks and valleys in his fourseam usage clearly, and those peaks tend to lineup with wins while the valleys signal those outings when Ventura just didn't have it for one reason or another. He threw the pitch more than 45% of the time in 11 starts this year. The Royals won 8 of them. When he's feeling it with the old number 1, he's tough to beat. When he's not, he's not. This would be the rather straight forward bit I'd alluded to.
What's odd about Ventura is just about everything else you see in the graph. For one, take a look at his cutter usage. He essentially buried the pitch in May and only threw it again during a 2-start stretch in August against the Angels and Tigers. More on this a little later, but I have to imagine it's strange for a hurler to shelf a pitch for an entire season only to bring it back in the most high-leverage outings of the season.
Next, you'll notice a steady rise in his curveball usage. The curve is Ventura's put-away pitch, and it's as nasty as they come, inducing whiffs on an astounding 42.39% of swings against it. It's great to see Ventura gaining confidence in the curve, since it's really the yen to his fastball's yang, and also because he's essentially done away with a changeup that he'd been throwing about once every 5 pitches earlier on in the year.
In the postseason, he's added a couple wrinkles. You can see he's eschewed his fourseam cheddar for more sinkers (2-seamers) and cutters. Pretty savvy move by the 24-year old, if you ask me. The cut fastball, especially, should help to neutralize lefthanded hitters in the mold of Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda. This is a welcome adjustment, and likely has a lot to do with oft-overlooked pitching wizard Dave Eiland, who for so many years with the Yankees worked with some of the best cutter artists this generation has seen.
So maybe we can just throw out the book on Ventura as a fastball-first, power pitcher. With him reversing course in nearly every way in his three playoff starts, maybe the heater doesn't portend success. But, as with anything, we have to keep sample size in perspective. Three starts does not a trend make.
So I'll be watching Ace very closely to start out the game. I'll be paying close attention to the Mets' hitters and how they try to disrupt Ventura and flare his infamous temper. But most importantly, I'll be charting how often he's throwing his fastball, because if he's got it working and is able to hit that magic 45% number, the Royals should wind up one game closer to a World Championship when all's said and done.
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Royals Links Today
Quick and handy roundup for you cubicle jockeys needing a Royals fix.
Fangraphs
- Brad Johnson takes a look at Kendrys Morales's resurgence this year, and also takes a peek into the future with 2016 fantasy projections.
- Jeff Sullivan reports on what's now a trend with Jacob deGrom's swing-and-miss stuff.
- While Royals fans still await Raul Mondesi's MLB debut (could come in New York this weekend!), Chris Mitchell projects his future.
- Great piece by Tony Blengino discussing what sets the Royals apart from the rest.
- August Fagerstrom calls Cueto the most exciting player in MLB, highlights his unique delivery(ies).
Kansas City Star
- Nobody does it better than Andy McCullough
- Vehe Gregorian takes a deep dive into what makes eccentric Johnny Cueto tick, as well as his historic performance in Game 2.
- Beat writers Andy McCullough and Blair Kerkhoff recap Game 2 in video form.
CBS Sports
- Jon Heyman's MLB notes include some pointers for the Mets if they plan on making a series of this.
- Dayne Perry gives us 8 things you need to know about the Royals' Game 2 victory.
ESPN
- Jayson Stark says the Royals offense looks unstoppable.
- This World Series, it's been the Royals hitters who've overpowered the Mets' starting pitching. David Schoenfield has the facts.
- More on Johnny Cueto's heorics from Jerry Crasnick.
- Adam Rubin tells the Mets' side of the story, especially what went wrong with Jacob deGrom.
- Grantland's Jonah Keri, always worth a read, gives his take on Game 2.
And a few more..
- The great Rany Jazayerli added to his Royals blog prior to the World Series, and talks about what this Royals team means to my generation of fans.
- Here's the guys at Royals Review taking us to New York!
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Fangraphs
- Brad Johnson takes a look at Kendrys Morales's resurgence this year, and also takes a peek into the future with 2016 fantasy projections.
- Jeff Sullivan reports on what's now a trend with Jacob deGrom's swing-and-miss stuff.
- While Royals fans still await Raul Mondesi's MLB debut (could come in New York this weekend!), Chris Mitchell projects his future.
- Great piece by Tony Blengino discussing what sets the Royals apart from the rest.
- August Fagerstrom calls Cueto the most exciting player in MLB, highlights his unique delivery(ies).
Kansas City Star
- Nobody does it better than Andy McCullough
- Vehe Gregorian takes a deep dive into what makes eccentric Johnny Cueto tick, as well as his historic performance in Game 2.
- Beat writers Andy McCullough and Blair Kerkhoff recap Game 2 in video form.
CBS Sports
- Jon Heyman's MLB notes include some pointers for the Mets if they plan on making a series of this.
- Dayne Perry gives us 8 things you need to know about the Royals' Game 2 victory.
ESPN
- Jayson Stark says the Royals offense looks unstoppable.
- This World Series, it's been the Royals hitters who've overpowered the Mets' starting pitching. David Schoenfield has the facts.
- More on Johnny Cueto's heorics from Jerry Crasnick.
- Adam Rubin tells the Mets' side of the story, especially what went wrong with Jacob deGrom.
- Grantland's Jonah Keri, always worth a read, gives his take on Game 2.
And a few more..
- The great Rany Jazayerli added to his Royals blog prior to the World Series, and talks about what this Royals team means to my generation of fans.
- Here's the guys at Royals Review taking us to New York!
careeryearblog@gmail.com
2 Down, 2 To Go.. KC Goes to New York
Thursday morning. It wasn't a dream.
Last night the Kansas City Royals emphatically took a 2-0 series lead on the Mets, pounding out 10 hits in the 7-1 Game 2 win. Johnny Cueto dominated a Mets offense that's looked nothing like its NLCS self. Two hits, one run, nine innings. It was the best game ever pitched by a Royal in a postseason game, according to Bill James' game score metric. Incredible.
The best thing about following these Royals isn't that they're accomplishing these feats night after night, conquering the best baseball has to throw at them. It's how they do it. They start rallies from any and every spot in the order. They've handily out-pitched a Mets group that was touted in the days leading up to the Series as the best young rotation maybe ever to be deployed in the playoffs. They field their positions. Boy, do they field their positions. Right now the USS Dayton Moore isn't leaking a drop, and as they set sail to the east, to New York and to glory, the sun is beginning to set on a dream run.
When the Mets took the lead 1-0 in the fourth inning on a Lucas Duda Texas leaguer to right field, the Royals had it coming. The previous batter was allowed to reach via fielder's choice on what should have been an inning-ending double-play ball to third baseman Mike Moustakas. But, Moose sailed his throw a touch wide and first baseman Eric Hosmer, who's looked uncharacteristically uncomfortable this series in the field, couldn't hold the bag. Analysts seem to think a chance at replay would've been worth it. Looked to me like Hosmer stretched a bit too early, and when Moose's throw wasn't as pinpoint as usual, it caught him flatfooted and out of position. He pulled his foot. The Mets got 4 outs instead of 3 in the 4th inning, and in the playoffs, it doesn't typically take long to pay for your miscues.
The fourth was also when Cueto seemed to come to a fork in the road. He was wavering badly, taking long pauses in between pitches and staring a hole through homeplate umpire Mark Carlson while his strike zone seemingly shrank with each pitch. He no longer was awarding Cueto the high strike. He no longer awarded the inside strike to left-handed hitters. This is a scene Royals fans had witnessed before. In the third inning of the ALCS, in Toronto, right before the Blue Jays exploded in front for good. The jeers rained down like poutine (I'm imagining poutine fountains and Molson Ice moats around Rogers Centre). Cueto was shaken, and couldn't recover.
But this time around, there were no jeers. Only cheers from the more than 40,000 in attendance at friendly Kauffman Stadium. And Cueto steeled his resolve, buckling down to retire Travis D'Arnoud and turn the inning over to the Royals' offense. But the dam had yet to break for Mets' ace Jacob deGrom. He looked to be tottering a bit on his long, stork legs, but the Royals had yet to break through.
Then the fifth rolled around.
deGrom started the inning by walking 8-hitter Alex Gordon. This lineup is relentless. deGrom had been fantastic all season, and lights out this postseason. He has the flowing locks and the high-90s fastball so en vogue these days. But on this day, for perhaps the first time in his baseball life, deGrom was overmatched. The Royals swung and missed only 3 times Wednesday night, by far the lowest number induced by deGrom in his professional career. They peppered the Mets' defense with hard-hit ground balls and line drives. They fouled off 23 deGrom pitches. They took 3 walks from him. They made him pack his lunch and put in an honest day's work. And it wasn't enough. Not by a longshot.
After the Gordon walk, Alex Rios followed with a base hit to left. 2 on, nobody out. The Royals were finally in business after putting only a couple of guys on base the previous 4 innings. The dam was cracking after so many repeated blows.
Then, in a way it seems only the Royals are capable, the offense broke through. After Alcides Escobar failed to get a bunt down on consecutive pitches, he rapped a 2-strike single into center, scoring Gordon and tying the game 1-1. Ben Zobrist kept the line moving, to qoute the Royals' motto this year, grounding out to first baseman Duda but moving both runners in the process. Lorenzo Cain lined out hard to center, increasing the already palpable drama at the K. Then Hosmer made up for his blunder in the fourth with a 2-run single up the middle- a hard-hit ground ball that was his first good contact all night. He extended his Royals playoff record for RBI to 28 in only 27 games, the kind of stat that makes you shrug and say "baseball". The inning finally came to a close, but not before Moose could drive in Cain to extend the Royals lead to 4-1. They never looked back.
Cueto dominated the remainder of the way, sitting down 15 straight at one point. The Royals kept the pressure on the Mets' bullpen and defense, adding 3 more runs in the eighth inning. The game was well in hand when Cueto came trotting out to finish what he'd started in the ninth inning. He walked a batter, but was otherwise sound, stirring what could potentially be the last Royals home crowd of 2015 into a frenzy.
And so the world turns. Coming into this Series, Vegas had the odds of winning dead even, -110 for both sides. It was supposed to be power pitching versus contact hitting with a side of excellent closers. But what was overlooked is the fact this Mets' offense doesn't pack much punch. Daniel Murphy's incredible home run binge in the NLDS and NLCS masked a bottom of the order that doesn't inspire much confidence. Outside of the Mets top 4 hitters, none look like they belong hitting postseason pitching.
On the flip side, this Royals offense is GREAT. Every regular outside of Hosmer and DH Kendrys Morales has been named to at least one All-Star team. The homegrown core of Escobar, Hosmer, Cain, Moose and, last but certainly not least, Salvador Perez, have come into their own as baseball's best young foundation. Their veterans have made their mark, with Zobrist looking like he's played in every World Series the last 10 years and Rios holding his own at the bottom of the order. They take big swings in 3-0 counts. They do not conceded anything. I can't imagine pitching against this bunch. It's a Murderer's Row, post-Moneyball. If you're holding ticket for the Royals to win the World Series right now, it wouldn't be weird to feel like you've stolen something.
So, it turns out the narrative coming into this World Series was spot on. Except it appears to this fan that both the power pitching and the contact hitting reside in the same dugout. The team in Royal Blue is not backing down but doubling down. The dream run that began in the Wild Card game last October is nearing the ending it deserved all along- with the Kansas City Royals as World Champions.
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Last night the Kansas City Royals emphatically took a 2-0 series lead on the Mets, pounding out 10 hits in the 7-1 Game 2 win. Johnny Cueto dominated a Mets offense that's looked nothing like its NLCS self. Two hits, one run, nine innings. It was the best game ever pitched by a Royal in a postseason game, according to Bill James' game score metric. Incredible.
The best thing about following these Royals isn't that they're accomplishing these feats night after night, conquering the best baseball has to throw at them. It's how they do it. They start rallies from any and every spot in the order. They've handily out-pitched a Mets group that was touted in the days leading up to the Series as the best young rotation maybe ever to be deployed in the playoffs. They field their positions. Boy, do they field their positions. Right now the USS Dayton Moore isn't leaking a drop, and as they set sail to the east, to New York and to glory, the sun is beginning to set on a dream run.
When the Mets took the lead 1-0 in the fourth inning on a Lucas Duda Texas leaguer to right field, the Royals had it coming. The previous batter was allowed to reach via fielder's choice on what should have been an inning-ending double-play ball to third baseman Mike Moustakas. But, Moose sailed his throw a touch wide and first baseman Eric Hosmer, who's looked uncharacteristically uncomfortable this series in the field, couldn't hold the bag. Analysts seem to think a chance at replay would've been worth it. Looked to me like Hosmer stretched a bit too early, and when Moose's throw wasn't as pinpoint as usual, it caught him flatfooted and out of position. He pulled his foot. The Mets got 4 outs instead of 3 in the 4th inning, and in the playoffs, it doesn't typically take long to pay for your miscues.
The fourth was also when Cueto seemed to come to a fork in the road. He was wavering badly, taking long pauses in between pitches and staring a hole through homeplate umpire Mark Carlson while his strike zone seemingly shrank with each pitch. He no longer was awarding Cueto the high strike. He no longer awarded the inside strike to left-handed hitters. This is a scene Royals fans had witnessed before. In the third inning of the ALCS, in Toronto, right before the Blue Jays exploded in front for good. The jeers rained down like poutine (I'm imagining poutine fountains and Molson Ice moats around Rogers Centre). Cueto was shaken, and couldn't recover.
But this time around, there were no jeers. Only cheers from the more than 40,000 in attendance at friendly Kauffman Stadium. And Cueto steeled his resolve, buckling down to retire Travis D'Arnoud and turn the inning over to the Royals' offense. But the dam had yet to break for Mets' ace Jacob deGrom. He looked to be tottering a bit on his long, stork legs, but the Royals had yet to break through.
Then the fifth rolled around.
deGrom started the inning by walking 8-hitter Alex Gordon. This lineup is relentless. deGrom had been fantastic all season, and lights out this postseason. He has the flowing locks and the high-90s fastball so en vogue these days. But on this day, for perhaps the first time in his baseball life, deGrom was overmatched. The Royals swung and missed only 3 times Wednesday night, by far the lowest number induced by deGrom in his professional career. They peppered the Mets' defense with hard-hit ground balls and line drives. They fouled off 23 deGrom pitches. They took 3 walks from him. They made him pack his lunch and put in an honest day's work. And it wasn't enough. Not by a longshot.
After the Gordon walk, Alex Rios followed with a base hit to left. 2 on, nobody out. The Royals were finally in business after putting only a couple of guys on base the previous 4 innings. The dam was cracking after so many repeated blows.
Then, in a way it seems only the Royals are capable, the offense broke through. After Alcides Escobar failed to get a bunt down on consecutive pitches, he rapped a 2-strike single into center, scoring Gordon and tying the game 1-1. Ben Zobrist kept the line moving, to qoute the Royals' motto this year, grounding out to first baseman Duda but moving both runners in the process. Lorenzo Cain lined out hard to center, increasing the already palpable drama at the K. Then Hosmer made up for his blunder in the fourth with a 2-run single up the middle- a hard-hit ground ball that was his first good contact all night. He extended his Royals playoff record for RBI to 28 in only 27 games, the kind of stat that makes you shrug and say "baseball". The inning finally came to a close, but not before Moose could drive in Cain to extend the Royals lead to 4-1. They never looked back.
Cueto dominated the remainder of the way, sitting down 15 straight at one point. The Royals kept the pressure on the Mets' bullpen and defense, adding 3 more runs in the eighth inning. The game was well in hand when Cueto came trotting out to finish what he'd started in the ninth inning. He walked a batter, but was otherwise sound, stirring what could potentially be the last Royals home crowd of 2015 into a frenzy.
And so the world turns. Coming into this Series, Vegas had the odds of winning dead even, -110 for both sides. It was supposed to be power pitching versus contact hitting with a side of excellent closers. But what was overlooked is the fact this Mets' offense doesn't pack much punch. Daniel Murphy's incredible home run binge in the NLDS and NLCS masked a bottom of the order that doesn't inspire much confidence. Outside of the Mets top 4 hitters, none look like they belong hitting postseason pitching.
On the flip side, this Royals offense is GREAT. Every regular outside of Hosmer and DH Kendrys Morales has been named to at least one All-Star team. The homegrown core of Escobar, Hosmer, Cain, Moose and, last but certainly not least, Salvador Perez, have come into their own as baseball's best young foundation. Their veterans have made their mark, with Zobrist looking like he's played in every World Series the last 10 years and Rios holding his own at the bottom of the order. They take big swings in 3-0 counts. They do not conceded anything. I can't imagine pitching against this bunch. It's a Murderer's Row, post-Moneyball. If you're holding ticket for the Royals to win the World Series right now, it wouldn't be weird to feel like you've stolen something.
So, it turns out the narrative coming into this World Series was spot on. Except it appears to this fan that both the power pitching and the contact hitting reside in the same dugout. The team in Royal Blue is not backing down but doubling down. The dream run that began in the Wild Card game last October is nearing the ending it deserved all along- with the Kansas City Royals as World Champions.
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Game 2
Game 2 prediction:
Royals 6, Mets 3
WP: Cueto, LP: DeGrom, S: Davis
MVP: Lorenzo Cain
Here's why:
1.) Feel good about Cueto tonight. Winning that game last night the way the Royals did can't have any other affect on the team than bringing them together. Cueto should be dealing tonight, and- cannot believe this hasn't been talked about at all- the Mets' lineup is soft. Murphy going ham on the Cubs doesn't make Legares or Conforto world beaters. After Cespedes, nobody on the Mets should scare anyone.
2.) Last night was big for the Royals' offense. No doubt they've been hearing about the Mets' starters all week. Harvey looked awfully ordinary last night. DeGrom is much better than Harvey in a vacuum, but I do think the Royals' lineup will bring his gaudy numbers back to the mean in terms of swings-and-misses, just like it did with Harvey. That means more balls in play for the Mets' defense to kick around. Also think he walks 2 or 3, as Royals may flip the script on first pitch swings and be a little more patient tonight.
BONUS- Mike Moustakas is locked in right now. Looks like the most comfortable hitter in the Royals' lineup outside of Ben Zobrist. Think he has a huge series after hitting a lot of balls on the screws but right at people in the previous two series. Already off to a great start.
3.) Mets look jumpy. They're not comfortable. The K will be rocking again tonight, and the eye test is telling me these Mets are a little caught up in the bright lights. Not too different from the Royals in last year's Series. These kind of jitters manifest themselves in rushed throws, altered gameplans, quick at-bats and in-game blunders. All of these things came to fruition last night. Royals just need a couple tonight to jump out to a 2-0 series lead.
4.) Yost will be Yost. This has tended to work out, regardless of what it means in terms of in-game decision making. Could be we see young Raul Mondesi in a big spot either at the dish or on the bases tonight. Could also mean Sal Perez catches 14 more innings. Who knows.
5.) Finally, and getting back to the offense, I've felt like Lo Cain and Hosmer have been on the cusp of a breakout all playoffs. They've shown signs, and Cain's been on base a ton, but they haven't had those big extra-base hits that gave this team such a boost in last year's playoffs. Don't be surprised if one of these two squares up a DeGrom heater and gives the folks by the fountains something to retrieve. These are the Royals' two best hitters. Time to show the world.
Let's Go Royals!
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Royals 6, Mets 3
WP: Cueto, LP: DeGrom, S: Davis
MVP: Lorenzo Cain
Here's why:
1.) Feel good about Cueto tonight. Winning that game last night the way the Royals did can't have any other affect on the team than bringing them together. Cueto should be dealing tonight, and- cannot believe this hasn't been talked about at all- the Mets' lineup is soft. Murphy going ham on the Cubs doesn't make Legares or Conforto world beaters. After Cespedes, nobody on the Mets should scare anyone.
2.) Last night was big for the Royals' offense. No doubt they've been hearing about the Mets' starters all week. Harvey looked awfully ordinary last night. DeGrom is much better than Harvey in a vacuum, but I do think the Royals' lineup will bring his gaudy numbers back to the mean in terms of swings-and-misses, just like it did with Harvey. That means more balls in play for the Mets' defense to kick around. Also think he walks 2 or 3, as Royals may flip the script on first pitch swings and be a little more patient tonight.
BONUS- Mike Moustakas is locked in right now. Looks like the most comfortable hitter in the Royals' lineup outside of Ben Zobrist. Think he has a huge series after hitting a lot of balls on the screws but right at people in the previous two series. Already off to a great start.
3.) Mets look jumpy. They're not comfortable. The K will be rocking again tonight, and the eye test is telling me these Mets are a little caught up in the bright lights. Not too different from the Royals in last year's Series. These kind of jitters manifest themselves in rushed throws, altered gameplans, quick at-bats and in-game blunders. All of these things came to fruition last night. Royals just need a couple tonight to jump out to a 2-0 series lead.
4.) Yost will be Yost. This has tended to work out, regardless of what it means in terms of in-game decision making. Could be we see young Raul Mondesi in a big spot either at the dish or on the bases tonight. Could also mean Sal Perez catches 14 more innings. Who knows.
5.) Finally, and getting back to the offense, I've felt like Lo Cain and Hosmer have been on the cusp of a breakout all playoffs. They've shown signs, and Cain's been on base a ton, but they haven't had those big extra-base hits that gave this team such a boost in last year's playoffs. Don't be surprised if one of these two squares up a DeGrom heater and gives the folks by the fountains something to retrieve. These are the Royals' two best hitters. Time to show the world.
Let's Go Royals!
careeryearblog@gmail.com
I'm Back! Royals Rise, Huskers Fall
Well, it's been awhile. About 18 months, to be exact. And, frankly, a lot of shit's gone down in those 18 months. Personally, I've moved from Chicago to Salt Lake City. Big move, big life change, things are different but somehow the same. Now instead of dodging the homeless and sprinting for that last seat on the 'L', I get to do things like drive a car buy skis. Different, to be sure.
But the biggest difference, the thing I cannot wrap my head around, has been what's happened with my beloved Royals. Around the time of my last post, the Royals were gearing up for a big year. Arguably the most hype a Royals team has garnered in my lifetime (I was born in '86, about 11 months after the Royals' last World Championship, and, prior to 2014, playoff appearance). They were young, hungry, and in the second and final year of James Shields' rental agreement. An exciting time to be a Royals fan, for sure. And that's something I honestly never thought would happen.
They didn't stop there, as we all know. They went on to become the darlings of baseball, winning thriller after thriller, coming back like no other, growing into their own under the bright lights of October baseball. Hosmer, Cain, Moose, Sal, the bullpen, Yost, Moore- all the shit I've been hearing in press conferences late in 100-loss seasons- was unfolding before my non-believing eyes. It was an incredible run that came up 90 feet short. As a sports fan, this was the sad pinnacle for me. A World Series loss ended the most fun season as a fan of any sport I've ever enjoyed. Kind of depressing.
Quick aside - I've kept this blog mostly non-personal, mostly because I'm the only one reading and can't imagine anyone outside my apartment caring about my day-to-day. But, here's a good time to highlight where I come from as a Royals, and sports, fan. I grew up in Nebraska in the '90s. A time when the Cornhuskers were arguably the most dominant dynasty college football has ever seen. From '94-'97, NU went something like 45-2. Insane. But, I was 10-13 during these years. I had been indoctrinated into a culture of winning. It was old hat. The way of the world. Routine. Thursday followed Wednesday and Nebraska killed a team by 50. As much a guarantee as the sun rising the next day. All told, I could not fully appreciate what was taking place. 3 national titles in 4 years? NBD.
Fast forward to my freshman year at NU, which was also Bill Callahan's first as the Huskers' head coach. I was now 18, and my true fandom was forming along with my drinking buddies at the top of the student section. I didn't miss one home game during my 5 football seasons at Nebraska. I witnessed first hand what a crumbling foundation looks like. Imagine a timelapse on Athens or the Coliseum. Wind, rain and neglect have reduced once-great marvels to dust and rubble. Basically the exact same thing Solich, Callahan and Pelini did to Tom Osborne's Huskers of my childhood. It sucked. It still sucks. It's shocking. Hard to believe, harder to watch. Huskers have 5 losses this year. FML.
So, it really should be no surprise that a franchise as laughable as the Royals have been since '85 can change course in such relative short order. If Nebraska's football dynasty can be reduced to rubble in 20 years, why can't a great civilization rise from its ashes a couple hundred miles south? And that's exactly what's happened. Mostly to my disbelief. Because as inconceivable as it once was for Nebraska to miss a bowl game, it was more so to imagine the Royals winning a pennant.
Well, today, in 2015, not only have they won a pennant, they've won back-to-back pennants. I CAN'T BELIEVE I'M TYPING THESE WORDS! It's been an unbelievable run. And I have no shame in saying this is the most fun team I've ever rooted for. I've never rooted harder for a team. I've never been so constantly surprised by what this team is doing. By what they've already done. It all seems like a fever dream. The Kansas City Royals have won back-to-back pennants. What planet am I on?!
Over the past two baseball seasons, my life as I previously knew it flipped upside down. New city, new job, new friends, new everything. But never in a million years would I have guessed that the biggest difference I'd have to get used to is the fact that I am now a fan of a baseball powerhouse. I no longer go months at a time without seeing a Royals hat outside of my own closet. I now have to be skeptical of bandwagon Royals fans (another term I never thought would come out of my mouth). I have to defend my position as a lifelong Royals fan. It's beyond bizarre.
But, as I sit here and count down the minutes to Game 2 of the World Series, nursing a hangover following last night's 14-inning marathon of emotions, I've never been happier as a sports fan. This is what I've been missing my whole life. I've followed championships, but never as an adult. Never as an invested fan. And never in baseball.
To live and die with a team so long thought to be dead already. To see them grow, to see LIFE, to see fight like no other, to see a family in Royal Blue. And now to see them at the top. This team, as Rany Jazayerli likes to say, has taught me the meaning of sports and fandom. The lowly Kansas City Royals. THIS TEAM!
careeryearblog@gmail.com
But the biggest difference, the thing I cannot wrap my head around, has been what's happened with my beloved Royals. Around the time of my last post, the Royals were gearing up for a big year. Arguably the most hype a Royals team has garnered in my lifetime (I was born in '86, about 11 months after the Royals' last World Championship, and, prior to 2014, playoff appearance). They were young, hungry, and in the second and final year of James Shields' rental agreement. An exciting time to be a Royals fan, for sure. And that's something I honestly never thought would happen.
They didn't stop there, as we all know. They went on to become the darlings of baseball, winning thriller after thriller, coming back like no other, growing into their own under the bright lights of October baseball. Hosmer, Cain, Moose, Sal, the bullpen, Yost, Moore- all the shit I've been hearing in press conferences late in 100-loss seasons- was unfolding before my non-believing eyes. It was an incredible run that came up 90 feet short. As a sports fan, this was the sad pinnacle for me. A World Series loss ended the most fun season as a fan of any sport I've ever enjoyed. Kind of depressing.
Quick aside - I've kept this blog mostly non-personal, mostly because I'm the only one reading and can't imagine anyone outside my apartment caring about my day-to-day. But, here's a good time to highlight where I come from as a Royals, and sports, fan. I grew up in Nebraska in the '90s. A time when the Cornhuskers were arguably the most dominant dynasty college football has ever seen. From '94-'97, NU went something like 45-2. Insane. But, I was 10-13 during these years. I had been indoctrinated into a culture of winning. It was old hat. The way of the world. Routine. Thursday followed Wednesday and Nebraska killed a team by 50. As much a guarantee as the sun rising the next day. All told, I could not fully appreciate what was taking place. 3 national titles in 4 years? NBD.
Fast forward to my freshman year at NU, which was also Bill Callahan's first as the Huskers' head coach. I was now 18, and my true fandom was forming along with my drinking buddies at the top of the student section. I didn't miss one home game during my 5 football seasons at Nebraska. I witnessed first hand what a crumbling foundation looks like. Imagine a timelapse on Athens or the Coliseum. Wind, rain and neglect have reduced once-great marvels to dust and rubble. Basically the exact same thing Solich, Callahan and Pelini did to Tom Osborne's Huskers of my childhood. It sucked. It still sucks. It's shocking. Hard to believe, harder to watch. Huskers have 5 losses this year. FML.
So, it really should be no surprise that a franchise as laughable as the Royals have been since '85 can change course in such relative short order. If Nebraska's football dynasty can be reduced to rubble in 20 years, why can't a great civilization rise from its ashes a couple hundred miles south? And that's exactly what's happened. Mostly to my disbelief. Because as inconceivable as it once was for Nebraska to miss a bowl game, it was more so to imagine the Royals winning a pennant.
Well, today, in 2015, not only have they won a pennant, they've won back-to-back pennants. I CAN'T BELIEVE I'M TYPING THESE WORDS! It's been an unbelievable run. And I have no shame in saying this is the most fun team I've ever rooted for. I've never rooted harder for a team. I've never been so constantly surprised by what this team is doing. By what they've already done. It all seems like a fever dream. The Kansas City Royals have won back-to-back pennants. What planet am I on?!
Over the past two baseball seasons, my life as I previously knew it flipped upside down. New city, new job, new friends, new everything. But never in a million years would I have guessed that the biggest difference I'd have to get used to is the fact that I am now a fan of a baseball powerhouse. I no longer go months at a time without seeing a Royals hat outside of my own closet. I now have to be skeptical of bandwagon Royals fans (another term I never thought would come out of my mouth). I have to defend my position as a lifelong Royals fan. It's beyond bizarre.
But, as I sit here and count down the minutes to Game 2 of the World Series, nursing a hangover following last night's 14-inning marathon of emotions, I've never been happier as a sports fan. This is what I've been missing my whole life. I've followed championships, but never as an adult. Never as an invested fan. And never in baseball.
To live and die with a team so long thought to be dead already. To see them grow, to see LIFE, to see fight like no other, to see a family in Royal Blue. And now to see them at the top. This team, as Rany Jazayerli likes to say, has taught me the meaning of sports and fandom. The lowly Kansas City Royals. THIS TEAM!
careeryearblog@gmail.com
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
fantasy: mock drafting above my pay grade
Have you ever done something so trivial, so mundane, so obscure, so utterly pointless, that you almost couldn't get enough of it? Well, if not, don't worry; you're not the weird one. What I'm trying to say is this topic, or rather activity, is quite foreign to roughly 97% of the American population, yet I've never been more fond of it. I mean, when it's all said and done, there's just nothing better to do on a freezing weeknight during an apocalyptic Chicago winter in February - outside of the bar - than mock draft. And that 97% is missing out big time.
In my first mock draft analysis leading up to the 2014 baseball season, we'll be experiencing several firsts all at once. For one, the only mock drafts I've ever participated in were the ones you just sign up for on Sportsline or ESPN with nine or 11 other random people who end up quitting after a pick or two. This one's the real deal. Long story short, I came across a piece by Howard Bender of RotoBuzzGuy.com last week, did a tiny bit of digging on what he calls the Mock Draft Army, sent him an email immediately because anything called the Mock Draft Army is something I need to inquire about, and next thing I know, he's emailing me back asking if I want to do a mock draft. Yes!!! He proceeds to follow up with instructions for navigating the draft site, and sure enough, here I am in a 15-team 5x5 roto draft with actual professionals, which I certainly am not. Howard Bender is an incredibly nice guy. And this is going to be interesting.
So I'm punching above my weight class right out of the gate. And to further spice things up, I'd never done a 15-team draft before in any format. I'm accustomed to 10- or 12-team, standard roto leagues. Hell, I thought I was venturing out by making my long-standing 10-team league into a keeper league this year. But here I am, and I'm going to give it my all. And it's not like I haven't had my fair share of training for this moment, either. I'm a bit of a nerd when it comes to fantasy baseball, and although I haven't done anything quite like this before, I'm no stranger to the mock draft lobby. This'll be fun.
So let's get on to it. Below you'll see the draft order and participants (with links to their twitter feeds and websites, where applicable), followed by a quick blurb of each of my picks and my thought process, along with some of the other choices that stood out to me at that point in time. I'm pick #13. Here we go:
1. The Shockers - Jim M.
2. Brad Johnson - The Hardball Times
3. LBK's Fake Team - LBK
4. Running with Scissors - Eric Caturia - RotoWire
5. Traded a Fister for a BJ - G.M.
6. Glove Love - Tony Goldenstein - RotoWire
7. MIKE CLIFFORD - Michael Clifford - FantasyTrade411.com
8. @WaiverWarrior - Adam
9. @FantasyTrade411 - Trader X - FantasyTrade411.com
10. @askROTObaseball - David Kerr - FantasySquads.com
11. Dexter Spivey - Scott Gilroy - rotoinfo.com
12. @rotobuzzguy - Howard Bender - RotoBuzzGuy.com
13. @CAREERYEAR
14. Tim McLeod - RotoRob.com
15. @nyyfan14 - Arad M
Round 1
#1 The Shockers - Miguel Cabrera 1B, DET
#2 Brad Johnson - Mike Trout CF, LAA
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Paul Goldschmidt 1B, ARI
#4 Running with Scissors - Carlos Gonzalez LF, COL
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Andrew McCutchen CF, PIT
#6 Glove Love - Hanley Ramirez SS, LAD
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Bryce Harper LF, WSH
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Chris Davis 1B, BAL
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Adam Jones CF, BAL
#10 @askROTObaseball - Robinson Cano 2B, SEA
#11 Dexter Spivey - Jacoby Ellsbury CF, NYY
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Ryan Braun RF, MIL
#13 @CAREERYEAR - Troy Tulowitzki SS, COL
#14 Tim McLeod - Jason Kipnis 2B, CLE
#15 @nyyfan14 - Joey Votto 1B, CIN
ROUND 1: Welcome to the 15-teamer, I guess. At pick 13, I didn't really know what my strategy should be other than hope Ryan Braun falls to me or the president of Troy Tulowitzki's fan club isn't one of the 12 guys ahead of me. Tulo was ranked 13th on this site, and I was perfectly happy grabbing him here after Braun went the pick before me. If he's on the field, he's the top shortstop. The ony thing that gave me pause was hoping Clayton Kershaw would make it back to me, and without knowing anyone in the room, I just had to go with my gut that this group wanted to hold off on pitching. I don't think Tulo makes it back around if I don't grab him now.
Round 2
#1 @nyyfan14 - Giancarlo Stanton RF, MIA
#2 Tim McLeod - Adrian Beltre 3B, TEX
#3 evil empire - Clayton Kershaw SP, LAD
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Prince Fielder 1B, TEX
#5 Dexter Spivey - Yasiel Puig RF, LAD
#6 @askROTObaseball - Evan Longoria 3B, TB
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Edwin Encarnacion 1B, TOR
#8 @WaiverWarrior - David Wright 3B, NYM
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Jose Reyes SS, TOR
#10 Glove Love - Dustin Pedroia 2B, BOS
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Jose Bautista RF, TOR
#12 Running with Scissors - Alex Rios RF, TEX
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Yu Darvish SP, TEX
#14 Brad Johnson - Carlos Gomez CF, MIL
#15 The Shockers - Justin Upton LF, ATL
ROUND 2: Bingo! Having Kershaw fall this far is unlikely, even in my 10-team redraft league, but I'll certainly take it here. As I said in the chat after the pick, pitching might be deep, but there's only one Clayton Kershaw. He's the best in the game, and that warrants more than second round consideration. I'd take him as high as 5th overall with some shaky springs from the back half of the first rounders as they stand now. Plus, now I can draft hitters while the field takes pitchers in rounds 4-7, which could be a nice perk. The bottom line is Kershaw should end up higher than 18th overall on the player rater October 1st, which is all we care about.
Round 3
#1 The Shockers - Albert Pujols 1B, LAA
#2 Brad Johnson - Freddie Freeman 1B, ATL
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Allen Craig 1B, STL
#4 Running with Scissors - Jay Bruce RF, CIN
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Jean Segura SS, MIL
#6 Glove Love - Buster Posey C, SF
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Yoenis Cespedes LF, OAK
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Max Scherzer SP, DET
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Adam Wainwright SP, STL
#10 @askROTObaseball - Ian Desmond SS, WSH
#11 Dexter Spivey - Hunter Pence RF, SF
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Elvis Andrus SS, TEX
#13 evil empire - Jason Heyward RF, ATL
#14 Tim McLeod - Shin-Soo Choo LF, TEX
#15 @nyyfan14 - Matt Carpenter 2B, STL
ROUND 3: I'm not sure how much of a reach this is, and I had my eye on another, less exciting name, but I just didn't want Heyward to get snatched up between my picks. Everything's primed for a huge year for him. Plus, I wasn't quite so afraid that the guy I wanted was a flashy enough pick to stand out from the others available. We'll see if it panned out.
As for the round, we start to see more of the elite starters fall off the board, which is fine by me. More hitters for me to choose from. A little run of top tier shortstops, as well, with Jean Segura, Ian Desmond and Elvis Andrus all having their names called. Of that group, I like Segura least. I just need to see him do it again.
Round 4
#1 @nyyfan14 - Joe Mauer 1B, MIN
#2 Tim McLeod - Pedro Alvarez 3B, PIT
#3 evil empire - Matt Holliday LF, STL
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Mark Trumbo RF, ARI
#5 Dexter Spivey - Eric Hosmer 1B, KC
#6 @askROTObaseball - Wil Myers RF, TB
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Felix Hernandez SP, SEA
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Carlos Santana C, CLE
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Stephen Strasburg SP, WSH
#10 Glove Love - Starling Marte LF, PIT
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Ryan Zimmerman 3B, WSH
#12 Running with Scissors - Cliff Lee SP, PHI
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Jose Fernandez SP, MIA
#14 Brad Johnson - Alex Gordon LF, KC
#15 The Shockers - Ian Kinsler 2B, DET
ROUND 4: Boom! Got lucky again with unsung run producer Matt Holliday making the turn. I actually bumped Mauer over him in my queue after my last pick, but he was swiped to start the round. So Mr. Dependable it is. I'll take 20-plus homers, 90-plus RBI, 90-plus runs and steady average all day long. Advanced stats are nice, and we can learn a lot about the game by embracing them, but bWAR isn't a 5x5 category. At least not yet. And in the stats we care about, Holliday is about as consistent as they come.
Round 5
#1 The Shockers - Justin Verlander SP, DET
#2 Brad Johnson - Josh Donaldson 3B, OAK
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Brett Lawrie 3B, TOR
#4 Running with Scissors - Chris Sale SP, CWS
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Madison Bumgarner SP, SF
#6 Glove Love - Manny Machado 3B, BAL
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Yadier Molina C, STL
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Matt Kemp CF, LAD
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Craig Kimbrel RP, ATL
#10 @askROTObaseball - David Price SP, TB
#11 Dexter Spivey - Cole Hamels SP, PHI
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Kyle Seager 3B, SEA
#13 evil empire - Jose Altuve 2B, HOU
#14 Tim McLeod - Adrian Gonzalez 1B, LAD
#15 @nyyfan14 - Zack Greinke SP, LAD
Round 6
#1 @nyyfan14 - Chase Headley 3B, SD
#2 Tim McLeod - Aroldis Chapman RP, CIN
#3 evil empire - Anthony Rizzo 1B, CHC
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Mike Minor SP, ATL
#5 Dexter Spivey - Jedd Gyorko 2B, SD
#6 @askROTObaseball - Mat Latos SP, CIN
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Josh Hamilton RF, LAA
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Domonic Brown LF, PHI
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Carlos Beltran RF, NYY
#10 Glove Love - Ben Zobrist RF, TB
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Jose Abreu 1B, CWS
#12 Running with Scissors - David Ortiz DH, BOS
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Michael Wacha SP, STL
#14 Brad Johnson - Greg Holland RP, KC
#15 The Shockers - Everth Cabrera SS, SD
Round 7
#1 The Shockers - Anibal Sanchez SP, DET
#2 Brad Johnson - Kenley Jansen RP, LAD
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Billy Hamilton CF, CIN
#4 Running with Scissors - Jayson Werth RF, WSH
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Michael Cuddyer RF, COL
#6 Glove Love - James Shields SP, KC
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Gerrit Cole SP, PIT
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Brian McCann C, NYY
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Desmond Jennings CF, TB
#10 @askROTObaseball - Jonathan Lucroy C, MIL
#11 Dexter Spivey - Homer Bailey SP, CIN
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Koji Uehara RP, BOS
#13 evil empire - Wilin Rosario C, COL
#14 Tim McLeod - Salvador Perez C, KC
#15 @nyyfan14 - Jon Lester SP, BOS
ROUNDS 5-7: Here we start to see just how quickly the field is thinning out, offensively speaking. Brett Lawrie in the 5th round? Josh Donaldson before Chris Sale? I think the pitching hate has gone a little too far, but I was pleased with the guys I ended up with here. Having Altuve drop to me at the end of Round 5 was a nice value, I believe. I may have reached a bit for Rizzo, but there was no way he was making it all the way back to me at the end of Round 7. As one of the last remaining utility-type sluggers, I had to grab him. Round 7 saw me round out the infield with my Wilin Rosario, and I couldn't be happier. Rosario belts. I want to play this league out!
Round 8
#1 @nyyfan14 - Dexter Fowler CF, HOU
#2 Tim McLeod - Leonys Martin CF, TEX
#3 evil empire - Gio Gonzalez SP, WSH
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Joe Nathan RP, DET
#5 Dexter Spivey - Matt Cain SP, SF
#6 @askROTObaseball - Brandon Phillips 2B, CIN
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Trevor Rosenthal RP, STL
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Brandon Belt 1B, SF
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Pablo Sandoval 3B, SF
#10 Glove Love - Jordan Zimmermann SP, WSH
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Aaron Hill 2B, ARI
#12 Running with Scissors - Kris Medlen SP, ATL
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Xander Bogaerts SS, BOS
#14 Brad Johnson - Christian Yelich LF, MIA
#15 The Shockers - Matt Adams 1B, STL
Round 9
#1 The Shockers - David Robertson RP, NYY
#2 Brad Johnson - Shelby Miller SP, STL
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Alex Cobb SP, TB
#4 Running with Scissors - Casey Janssen RP, TOR
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Julio Teheran SP, ATL
#6 Glove Love - Austin Jackson CF, DET
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Jim Johnson RP, OAK
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Hyun-Jin Ryu SP, LAD
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Aramis Ramirez 3B, MIL
#10 @askROTObaseball - Billy Butler DH, KC
#11 Dexter Spivey - Starlin Castro SS, CHC
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Martin Prado 3B, ARI
#13 evil empire - Matt Wieters C, BAL
#14 Tim McLeod - Masahiro Tanaka SP, NYY
#15 @nyyfan14 - Michael Bourn CF, CLE
Round 10
#1 @nyyfan14 - Matt Moore SP, TB
#2 Tim McLeod - Sonny Gray SP, OAK
#3 evil empire - Shane Victorino RF, BOS
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Victor Martinez DH, DET
#5 Dexter Spivey - Carl Crawford LF, LAD
#6 @askROTObaseball - Glen Perkins RP, MIN
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Curtis Granderson CF, NYM
#8 @WaiverWarrior - J.J. Hardy SS, BAL
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Evan Gattis C, ATL
#10 Glove Love - Jeff Samardzija SP, CHC
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Sergio Romo RP, SF
#12 Running with Scissors - Jered Weaver SP, LAA
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Danny Salazar SP, CLE
#14 Brad Johnson - Chase Utley 2B, PHI
#15 The Shockers - Nelson Cruz RF, ---
ROUNDS 8-10: Value time! Well, except for the guy who took Nelson Cruz. Ouch. Anyway, I grabbed three guys here who were all picked in the first six or seven rounds of fantasy drafts last year, some much higher. In Gonzalez, I've got a workhorse with strikeout and elite wins potential to act as my No. 2 starter. In Round 9, I couldn't help but pull the trigger on Wieters. I can understand why the hype has calmed down, but this is still a guy who has provided some pretty solid fantasy seasons lately. And this is a 2-catcher league! Catcher may be deep, but it's not 20-deep. Wieters may still have a breakout in him, and this he's almost certain to outplay this position.
Speaking of outplaying his draft position, Shane Victorino is not likely to finish outside the top-100 overall if he remains healthy. He's going to be counted on for more run production this season, and perhaps a leadoff role if things play out just right. No way he lasts this long in real drafts. I gotta write this down...
.. ok, where was I?
Round 11
#1 The Shockers - Jason Castro C, HOU
#2 Brad Johnson - Patrick Corbin SP, ARI
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Nolan Arenado 3B, COL
#4 Running with Scissors - Brandon Moss 1B, OAK
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Wilson Ramos C, WSH
#6 Glove Love - Adam Eaton LF, CWS
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Alejandro De Aza CF, CWS
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Khristopher Davis LF, MIL
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Jurickson Profar 2B, TEX
#10 @askROTObaseball - Alfonso Soriano LF, NYY
#11 Dexter Spivey - Asdrubal Cabrera SS, CLE
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Anthony Rendon 2B, WSH
#13 evil empire - Will Middlebrooks 3B, BOS
#14 Tim McLeod - Andrew Cashner SP, SD
#15 @nyyfan14 - Grant Balfour RP, TB
Round 12
#1 @nyyfan14 - Jed Lowrie SS, OAK
#2 Tim McLeod - Neftali Feliz RP, TEX
#3 evil empire - Hisashi Iwakuma SP, SEA
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Hiroki Kuroda SP, NYY
#5 Dexter Spivey - Josh Reddick RF, OAK
#6 @askROTObaseball - Francisco Liriano SP, PIT
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Rafael Soriano RP, WSH
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Andrelton Simmons SS, ATL
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Howie Kendrick 2B, LAA
#10 Glove Love - Jason Grilli RP, PIT
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Mike Napoli 1B, BOS
#12 Running with Scissors - Daniel Murphy 2B, NYM
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Brian Dozier 2B, MIN
#14 Brad Johnson - Yan Gomes C, CLE
#15 The Shockers - Miguel Montero C, ARI
Round 13
#1 The Shockers - Coco Crisp CF, OAK
#2 Brad Johnson - Jhonny Peralta SS, STL
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Brett Gardner LF, NYY
#4 Running with Scissors - Steven Cishek RP, MIA
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Brad Miller SS, SEA
#6 Glove Love - Mike Zunino C, SEA
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Matt Garza SP, MIL
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Addison Reed RP, ARI
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Johnny Cueto SP, CIN
#10 @askROTObaseball - Doug Fister SP, WSH
#11 Dexter Spivey - R.A. Dickey SP, TOR
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Devin Mesoraco C, CIN
#13 evil empire - Will Venable RF, SD
#14 Tim McLeod - Oswaldo Arcia RF, MIN
#15 @nyyfan14 - CC Sabathia SP, NYY
Round 14
#1 @nyyfan14 - Fernando Rodney RP, SEA
#2 Tim McLeod - Tony Cingrani SP, CIN
#3 evil empire - Tommy Hunter RP, BAL
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Chris Archer SP, TB
#5 Dexter Spivey - Melky Cabrera LF, TOR
#6 @askROTObaseball - Norichika Aoki RF, KC
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - A.J. Pierzynski C, BOS
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Jonathan Papelbon RP, PHI
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - C.J. Wilson SP, LAA
#10 Glove Love - Lance Lynn SP, STL
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Travis d'Arnaud C, NYM
#12 Running with Scissors - Alexei Ramirez SS, CWS
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Alex Wood SP, ATL
#14 Brad Johnson - Jarrod Saltalamacchia C, MIA
#15 The Shockers - Justin Masterson SP, CLE
Round 15
#1 The Shockers - Torii Hunter RF, DET
#2 Brad Johnson - Corey Kluber SP, CLE
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Avisail Garcia RF, CWS
#4 Running with Scissors - Jonathan Villar SS, HOU
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Ernesto Frieri RP, LAA
#6 Glove Love - Huston Street RP, SD
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - John Axford RP, CLE
#8 @WaiverWarrior - B.J. Upton CF, ATL
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Mark Teixeira 1B, NYY
#10 @askROTObaseball - Chris Johnson 3B, ATL
#11 Dexter Spivey - Cody Asche 3B, PHI
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Michael Brantley LF, CLE
#13 evil empire - Jarrod Parker SP, OAK
#14 Tim McLeod - Nick Castellanos 3B, DET
#15 @nyyfan14 - Ben Revere CF, PHI
ROUNDS 11-15: In these middle rounds, if often feels like you're just throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks. A lot of 'potential' guys, soon-to-be 27-year olds, prospects getting their chance. 'Upside' guys, as they're known in the 'industry'. Middlebrooks could be a solid producer at the hot corner with a healthy season and some much needed confidence, so he'd certainly qualify under the 'upside' tag. 20 homers isn't out of the question.
Iwakuma, he of the recently injured finger, is not going to fall this far in your drafts. His injury should be a non-factor (he pitched through similar issues last year), and he's absolutely for real. If he's your No. 3 starter, you could do worse. I also like Parker's strikeout upside, for what that's worth.
I sandwiched my first closer with a couple upside-type outfielders in Venable, who I love, and Brantley, who is blah. It may just be me, but Brantley could be so much more than what he is in my opinion, and until he taps into his potential in both the power and speed departments, I'm not buying. Venable, on the other hand, is the picture of someone who's tapping into his potential. His 20-20 talent is more than legit, and if he has a lucky BABIP or HR/FB year, he could transform into Carlos Gomez-light, which would be infinitely worth more than a 13th-rounder.
Oh, and Tommy Hunter has a shot at fantasy goodness if he takes hold of the opportunity to shut the door for the O's. After all, who'd heard of Jim Johnson before he burst onto the scene? Same is true with most closers, come to think of it, and Baltimore seems to be a nice spot for racking up saves in league-leading bunches. I'll wait on saves and take this type of guy as my No 1. reliever and play the waiver wire for always-available saves.
Round 16
#1 @nyyfan14 - Colby Rasmus CF, TOR
#2 Tim McLeod - Kole Calhoun RF, LAA
#3 evil empire - A.J. Burnett SP, PHI
#4 @rotobuzzguy - George Springer CF, HOU
#5 Dexter Spivey - Clay Buchholz SP, BOS
#6 @askROTObaseball - Rex Brothers RP, COL
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Jimmy Rollins SS, PHI
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Taijuan Walker RP, SEA
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Yonder Alonso 1B, SD
#10 Glove Love - Oscar Taveras OF, STL
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Rick Porcello SP, DET
#12 Running with Scissors - Jim Henderson RP, MIL
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Drew Smyly SP, DET
#14 Brad Johnson - Eric Young RF, NYM
#15 The Shockers - Todd Frazier 3B, CIN
Round 17
#1 The Shockers - Bobby Parnell RP, NYM
#2 Brad Johnson - Tim Lincecum SP, SF
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Adam Lind 1B, TOR
#4 Running with Scissors - Kyle Lohse SP, MIL
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Josh Johnson SP, SD
#6 Glove Love - Nick Markakis RF, BAL
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Nick Swisher 1B, CLE
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Yordano Ventura RP, KC
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Peter Bourjos CF, STL
#10 @askROTObaseball - Chris Tillman SP, BAL
#11 Dexter Spivey - Mike Moustakas 3B, KC
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Rajai Davis LF, DET
#13 evil empire - Zack Wheeler SP, NYM
#14 Tim McLeod - Erick Aybar SS, LAA
#15 @nyyfan14 - Marlon Byrd RF, PHI
Round 18
#1 @nyyfan14 - David Freese 3B, LAA
#2 Tim McLeod - Marco Estrada SP, MIL
#3 evil empire - Justin Morneau 1B, COL
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Brandon Beachy SP, ATL
#5 Dexter Spivey - John Lackey SP, BOS
#6 @askROTObaseball - Josh Willingham LF, MIN
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Nate Jones RP, CWS
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Kevin Gausman RP, BAL
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Juan Francisco 1B, MIL
#10 Glove Love - Chris Carter 1B, HOU
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Corey Hart RF, SEA
#12 Running with Scissors - Matt Dominguez 3B, HOU
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Josmil Pinto C, MIN
#14 Brad Johnson - Ryan Howard 1B, PHI
#15 The Shockers - A.J. Griffin SP, OAK
Round 19
#1 The Shockers - Alcides Escobar SS, KC
#2 Brad Johnson - Kendrys Morales 1B, ---
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Yasmani Grandal C, SD
#4 Running with Scissors - Ivan Nova SP, NYY
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Jose Veras RP, CHC
#6 Glove Love - Matthew Davidson 3B, CWS
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Brandon Morrow SP, TOR
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Cody Allen RP, CLE
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Ricky Nolasco SP, MIN
#10 @askROTObaseball - Russell Martin C, PIT
#11 Dexter Spivey - Ervin Santana SP, ---
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Adam LaRoche 1B, WSH
#13 evil empire - Kelly Johnson 3B, NYY
#14 Tim McLeod - Neil Walker 2B, PIT
#15 @nyyfan14 - Ubaldo Jimenez SP, ---
Round 20
#1 @nyyfan14 - Omar Infante 2B, KC
#2 Tim McLeod - Jose Quintana SP, CWS
#3 evil empire - Daniel Straily SP, OAK
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Dan Haren SP, LAD
#5 Dexter Spivey - Jhoulys Chacin SP, COL
#6 @askROTObaseball - Michael Morse LF, SF
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Welington Castillo C, CHC
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Archie Bradley RP, ARI
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Eduardo Nunez SS, NYY
#10 Glove Love - Ian Kennedy SP, SD
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Lorenzo Cain CF, KC
#12 Running with Scissors - Derek Norris C, OAK
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Gregory Polanco CF, PIT
#14 Brad Johnson - LaTroy Hawkins RP, COL
#15 The Shockers - Jake Peavy SP, BOS
Round 21
#1 The Shockers - Nate Schierholtz RF, CHC
#2 Brad Johnson - Nathan Eovaldi SP, MIA
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Tyson Ross SP, SD
#4 Running with Scissors - Jose Iglesias SS, DET
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Martin Perez SP, TEX
#6 Glove Love - Erasmo Ramirez SP, SEA
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Yovani Gallardo SP, MIL
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Alexander Guerrero 2B, LAD
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Daniel Nava LF, BOS
#10 @askROTObaseball - Travis Wood SP, CHC
#11 Dexter Spivey - Bartolo Colon SP, NYM
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Alexi Ogando SP, TEX
#13 evil empire - Mitch Moreland 1B, TEX
#14 Tim McLeod - Dioner Navarro C, TOR
#15 @nyyfan14 - Edward Mujica RP, BOS
Round 22
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Daniel Nava LF, BOS
#10 @askROTObaseball - Travis Wood SP, CHC
#11 Dexter Spivey - Bartolo Colon SP, NYM
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Alexi Ogando SP, TEX
#13 evil empire - Mitch Moreland 1B, TEX
#14 Tim McLeod - Dioner Navarro C, TOR
#15 @nyyfan14 - Edward Mujica RP, BOS
Round 22
#1 @nyyfan14 - Scott Kazmir SP, OAK
#2 Tim McLeod - Cameron Maybin CF, SD
#3 evil empire - Junior Lake LF, CHC
#4 @rotobuzzguy - Alex Avila C, DET
#5 Dexter Spivey - Ryan Doumit C, ATL
#6 @askROTObaseball - James Loney 1B, TB
#7 @FantasyTrade411 - Stephen Drew SS, ---
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Kolten Wong 2B, STL
#9 MIKE CLIFFORD - Matt Joyce LF, TB
#10 Glove Love - Wade Miley SP, ARI
#11 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Raul Ibanez LF, LAA
#12 Running with Scissors - Denard Span CF, WSH
#13 LBK's Fake Team - Carlos E. Martinez RP, STL
#14 Brad Johnson - Jordy Mercer SS, PIT
#15 The Shockers - James Paxton SP, SEA
Round 23
#1 The Shockers - Michael Pineda SP, NYY
#2 Brad Johnson - Mark Melancon RP, PIT
#3 LBK's Fake Team - Dustin Ackley CF, SEA
#4 Running with Scissors - Carlos Ruiz C, PHI
#5 Traded a Fister for a BJ - Tyler Skaggs SP, LAA
#6 Glove Love - Andre Ethier RF, LAD
#7 MIKE CLIFFORD - Jon Niese SP, NYM
#8 @WaiverWarrior - Grady Sizemore CF, BOS
#9 @FantasyTrade411 - Danny Farquhar RP, SEA
#10 @askROTObaseball - Bronson Arroyo SP, ARI
#11 Dexter Spivey - J.P. Arencibia C, TEX
#12 @rotobuzzguy - Jason Vargas SP, KC
#13 evil empire - Tim Hudson SP, SF
#14 Tim McLeod - Dillon Gee SP, NYM
#15 @nyyfan14 - Ryan Hanigan C, TB
ROUNDS 16-23: Alright, time to round out the squad and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle. Everyone will have their own opinions of who they like late, and every year there's a first-page performer to be found in these critical final rounds. 2014 will be no different, and there are a couple here that I want to highlight. Let's start with my picks to plug the corner and middle infield spots, with each enjoying their time in the roto spotlight in the not-so-distant past. I'm talking, of course, about Justin Morneau and Kelly Johnson, each of whom is getting used to a new city this year. And in each new city they'll set up shop in two of the most hitter-friendly venues in the league in Coors Field and Yankee Stadium, respectively. Morneau is more of the wildcard, with his slow recovery from concussion symptoms, but Johnson seems almost a lock to at least pop 15 dingers while leveraging that short porch in right field.
Mitch Moreland and Junior Lake were added to round out power and speed categories, with obvious breakout potential (er, hope?) for each. Moreland once again should see plenty of pitches to hit in a stacked Rangers lineup, and something's got to break right for the Cubs eventually, right?
Kershaw will have to carry my top-heavy rotation, but I was happy to nab Zach Wheeler, who I think has the most upside of any pitcher I selected in this group. He was certainly more hyped during the year last year, which is curious.
Well, there you have it. The dork-a-thon comes to an end. For what it's worth, my team was projected to finish first on the site we drafted on, which was a pleasant surprise, to say the least.
Also for what it's worth, when I saw that my team was first I asked a fellow drafter who was lingering in the draft room if his screen said his team was first because I thought they were just trying to get me to purchase the expansion pack or whatever. So there's that.
The bottom line, as always, is that anything having to do with fantasy baseball, no matter how trivial it may seem to the outside world, is awesome to a select few. And I'm happy to call myself a member of said few.
Now, if only the season would start... (sigh)
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*Thanks to Howard Bender and all of the other writers/contributors who made this mock draft and subsequent write-up possible.
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